Real Wealth Society

Wednesday, March 08, 2006

The oil may be "iffy," but we've got Mangos!!! By Fred Cederholm

TH*NK*NG (SUPPLIERS) Column for on/after Mar 5th)

I’ve been thinking about suppliers. Actually I’ve been thinking about crude oil and petroleum imports, Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq, a 20 cent jump, and Mangos. A little over a week ago, the Energy Information Agency of the US Department of Energy released the figures and breakdowns of our petroleum energy consumption and imports for 2005. The numbers boggle the mind and the outlook is… well, read on.

You see, despite the record prices for oil (which exceeded $60 per barrel for virtually all of 2005), total imports of crude/petroleum were up. We consumed 4.937 BILLION barrels in 2005; up from the 4.811 BILLION barrels in 2004 – a 2.62% increase. Meanwhile… our domestic crude oil field production decreased for the year; down to 1.869 BILLION barrels in 2005 from 1.983 BILLION barrels in 2004 - another 5.75% decline. This double edged sword cut US/us both ways, and was the largest component of Uncle $ugar’s trade (current) deficit in 2005. The major oil companies posted record profits for the year.

Canada was the largest external source of our energy imports in 2005. We imported 792.691 MILLION barrels from them versus the 782.598 MILLION barrels in 2004 – a 1.29% increase. Canada is not a member of OPEC and accepts dollars for their sales.

Mexico was the second largest external source of our energy imports in 2005. We imported 600.676 MILLION barrels from them versus the 609.225 MILLION barrels in 2004 – a 1.40% decrease. Mexico is not a member of OPEC and accepts dollars for their sales.

Saudi Arabia was the third largest external source of our energy imports in 2005. We imported 556.006 MILLION barrels from them versus the 570.137 MILLION barrels in 2004 – a 2.48% decrease. Saudi Arabia is a member of OPEC and accepts dollars for their sales.

Venezuela was the fourth largest external source of our energy imports in 2005. We imported 549.535 MILLION barrels from them versus the 568.944 MILLION barrels in 2004 – a 3.41% decrease. Venezuela is a member of OPEC and accepts dollars/EURO’s for their sales.

Nigeria was the fifth largest external source in 2005. We imported 418.778 MILLION barrels from them versus the 417.152 MILLION barrels in 2004 – a .39% increase. Nigeria is a member of OPEC and accepts dollars for their sales.

Iraq was the sixth largest external source of our energy imports in 2005. We imported 190.404 MILLION barrels from them versus the 240.191 MILLION barrels in 2004 – a 20.73% decrease. Iraq was a founding member of OPEC and accepts dollars for their sales. Iraq’s production has yet to approach its pre-March 19th, 2003 levels.

After these six largest sources, the amounts provided to Uncle $ugar in 2005 and 2004 drops off considerably (by country of origin) and, the remaining mix shifted only marginally. Last Friday, the at-the-pump-price for gasoline jumped 20 cents to $2.46 a gallon here in Northwest Illinois. The Venezuelan Oil Minister, Rafael Ramirez, is calling for a MILLION barrels per day (BPD) production cut at OPEC’s Wednesday March 8th meeting. While the OPEC official production ceiling stands at 28 MILLION BPD, the group’s eleven members pumped nearly 30 MILLION BPD in February – a 320,000 BPD increase over January. Their usable spare capacity is presently only 1.6% of the daily global oil production. Did the 20 cent spike in the at-the-pump-prices reflect anxiety over future production levels, or was it because there was a weekend coming?

On the brighter side, it was announced by the President (traveling abroad) that the importation restrictions on Mangos from the subcontinent of India would be eliminated. In return, we would provide the Indian government with our “state of the art” nuclear technology and a guaranteed supply of nuclear fuel. Similar agreements were not reached with Pakistan, Iran, and North Korea. The last time I enjoyed truly succulent Mangos was at the Turtle Bay Hilton Resort on Oahu where I took my late mother Alice to celebrate her 70th birthday in March of 1984. I m Fred Cederholm and I’ve been thinking. You should be thinking, too.

Copyright 2006 Questions, Inc. All rights reserved.

To “audit” this column and to learn more about the subjects discussed, please check out:

Crude Oil and Total Petroleum Imports from top 15 countries (Source: Energy Information Agency of US Department of Energy)
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html

U.S. Crude Oil Field Production (Thousand Barrels)
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mcrfpus1A.htm

U.S. Imports by Country of Origin
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbbl_m.htm

U.S. Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Imports from All Countries (Thousand Barrels) 1981 – 2005 (BY YEAR AND BY MONTH)
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mttimus1M.

U.S. Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Imports from Persian Gulf Countries (Thousand Barrels) 1993 -2005 http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mttimuspg1A.htm

OPEC expected to keep output steady; prices could fall
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-0603060107mar06,1,2576543.story?coll=chi-newsnationworld-hed

Bush, India's Singh Sign Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement http://usinfo.state.gov/xarchives/display.html?p=washfile-english&y=2006& ;m=March&x=20060302111240ndyblehs0.734997&t=livefeeds/wf-latest.html

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