Thinking about contractions By Fred Cederholm

Column for on/after MAY 18th, 2008

I’ve been thinking about contractions. Actually I’ve been thinking about the Summer 2008 driving season, recessions, the March 2008 trade numbers, our trade deficits, our energy deficits, and worldwide gas prices at the pump. Official numbers for our trade deficits, the cumulative trade deficit(s) for the calendar year thus far, our energy import sources, and the “at the pump pricing” for gasoline around the world for this past March were released last week. The results and implications for US/us were actually quite surprising - at least they were not what I had expected.

You see the Summer of 2008 driving season usually kicks off on this coming Memorial Day weekend. Like everyone else I am already shelling out more per week to fuel up my vehicle(s) and am re-allocating expenditures on convenience (and junk) food, eating out, summer apparel, and anything else I don’t absolutely need to buy. I’ve never been a “power shopper” and only frequent the Malls/ retailers when I am pretty much buying gifts for others. From recent conversations, this is becoming common. The definition of recessions is based upon a contraction in spending and consumption. Recent stats for many large retailers showed contraction(s) in 2008’s first quarter.

Our eight largest trade deficits for the month of March 2008 (and 2008 Year to Date) are as follows: China $16.072 Billion ($54.745 Billion YTD), Japan $7.490 Billion ($20.959 Billion YTD), Canada $6.483 Billion, ($18.798 Billion YTD), Mexico $5.974 Billion ($16.613 Billion YTD), Germany $4.483 Billion ($10.802 Billion YTD), Nigeria $3.283 Billion ($9.580 Billion YTD), Venezuela $2.754 Billion ($8.773 Billion YTD), and Saudi Arabia $2.697 Billion ($9.584 Billion YTD), Our hands-down overall biggest dollar denominated imports are for crude oil and petroleum distillates. While dollar values for energy suppliers rose, trade deficits with the others tended to decrease slightly. The March 2008 energy imports (in barrels) were mostly down from a year ago.

The top eight sources of Uncle $ugar’s crude oil imports for March 2008 were: Canada (1.727 Million barrels per DAY--MBPD) down 3%, Saudi Arabia (1.535 MBPD) up 26%, Mexico (1.232 MBPD) down 24%, Nigeria (1.138 MBPD) down 12%, Venezuela (0.858 MBPD) down 17%, Iraq (0.773 MBPD) up 48%, Angola (0.375 MBPD) down 46%, and Algeria (0.232 MBPD) down 54%. Uncle $ugar’s top eight sources of total petroleum imports for March 2008 were: Canada (2.303 MILLION barrels per DAY--MBPD) down .1%, Saudi Arabia (1.542 MBPD) up 24%, Mexico (1.351 MBPD) down 23%, Nigeria (1.158 MBPD) down 14%, Venezuela (1.015 MBPD) down 21% , Iraq (0.773 MBPD) up 48%, Algeria (0.427 MBPD) down 41%, and Russia (0.394 MBPD) down 13%. Crude imports averaged 9.385 MBPD at a March import average price per barrel of crude oil (@ $89.85) was a record. It is important to note that last Friday’s crude pricing reflected an all-time high of over $ 127 per barrel. While consumption may be contracting, the escalating per barrel price will negatively skew the trade deficit figures for April and May when they later become available.

“Pump” prices now hover nationwide at the $4.00 range. US/us are not used to this… and we collectively feel grossly ripped off – we shouldn’t! The worldwide March “at the pump” prices rank the USA (@ $3.45/gallon in March) in the 108th position globally. Gas prices (in dollars per gallon equivalents) then were $9.58 in Eritea, $ 8.73 in Norway, $8.38 in the UK, $ 8.37 in the Netherlands, $8.31 in Monaco, $8.28 in Iceland, $8.22 in Belgium, $8.07 in France, $7.86 in Germany, and $7.84 in Portugal. Working from the lowest worldwide pricing, ranks the US in the 44th position from the bottom. Venezuela was the cheapest at 12 cents per gallon, Iran followed at 40 cents, Saudi Arabia was at 45 cents, Libya was at 50 cents, and Swaziland was at 54 cents. Don’t you wish you could “fill up” in Caracas??? I’m Fred Cederholm and I’ve been thinking. You should be thinking, too.

Copyright 2008 Questions, Inc. All rights reserved.

World Food Crisis (non partisan explanation)

(04/08-10) OTC: $100 trillion needed to rebuild energy infrastructure | Feud: Oil in the Family | Peak Oil Doomsters debunked, end of civilization called off

(05/05-07) The End of Cheap Food | Level Two - Save Consumables | White House says farm bill cost still too high - $300bn | A Slap at Schoolchildren - Farm Bill | Bankrupt policies, empty stomachs | VIDEO: Bush Addresses 'Global Food Crisis' , Calls for $1 billion for 'global food | With food costs rising, ethanol benefits now questioned | Are We Running Out of Food?


(05/01-04) Amid mounting food crisis, governments fear revolution of the hungry | World Bank tackles food emergency | Biofuels under fire | Next bubble: Food | The new bogeyman: Worldwide hunger and biofuels | Agricultural corporations boast huge profits in midst of food crisis | Ethanol Policy Raises Food Prices | Ethanolics Anonymous | Global Famine | UN Urges Biofuel Investment Halt | A Perfect Storm of Stupidity (Food vs. Fuel)


(04/27-30) Big Corn and Ethanol Hoax | Ethanol part of food crisis, says Durbin | Deadly Greed: The Role of Speculators in the Global Food Crisis | Ethanol: It Looks Cheaper, But Looks Can Be Deceiving | The Real Cost of Tackling Climate Change | Wall Street Grain Hoarding Brings Farmers Near Ruin, Losses to Food Makers | US secretary concedes biofuels may spur food price rises | Let them eat ethanol? | The Biofuels Disaster Must End | The Lords of Capital Decree Mass Death by Starvation


(04/24-26) Biofuel Madness: Environmentalism exploited for political purposes | Soaring food prices due to demand, not investor speculation | The Washington food crisis consensus | Financial speculators reap profits from global hunger | Funding the food price fiasco | Bankrupt policies, empty stomachs Food Crisis Eclipsing Climate Change| The Political Economics of Greenwashing | Wheat Crop Failures Could be Total, Experts Warn | Hunger stalks millions of poor Americans | Food Riots 'Going to be More Commonplace' | Global Food Prices and Africa's Economic Famine


(04/21-23) Bryce on the Ethanol Explosion | Leaders warn on biofuels and food | Gore's Alarmism Failing: Concern for Global Warming Same as 19 Years Ago! | Biofuels Under Fire at International Energy Forum | Food Rationing Confronts Breadbasket of the World | How The Rich Starved The World Food rationing in the U.S.? | Food protectionism could provoke a crisis on a par with 1970s oil shocks | Bio-Foolishness | Biofuels: Who bears the cost? | Our climate numbers are a big old mess | Where's the food? | Fox news reports food rationing at Costco and Sams | Ethanol Kills Wildlife - People only starved


(04/13-16) North Korea 'faces food crisis' | Prices soaring as biggest grain exporters halt foreign sales | Why has the Global Food Crisis reached Emergency Proportions? | France’s answer to global food crisis is EU protectionism | EU defends biofuel goals amid food crises | Economic Pain Of Carbon Cuts Will Be Global | Global warming: The hidden assumption |



(04/10-12) Grains Gone Wild | World Bank Climate Profiteering | FAO chief warns of food riots, calls global meet on food security | A foolish overreaction to climate change | Nations make secret deals over grain | THe REAL invonvenient truth, Zealotry over Warming Could Damage Earth More than Climate Change | Is A Food Riot Coming To YOUR Neighborhood? | Gore Admits Financial 'Stake' In Advancing Global Warming Hysteria | Global Famine Upon Us | Two carbon-market millionaires take a hit as UN clamps down | Our global warming rage lets global hunger grow

more
http://www.moneyfiles.org/elites08.html
or
http://www.un-debt.net/elites08.html

The Rich: How They Operate and Glossary By James Jaeger

Glossary of Cultural & Eco/Political Terms by James Jaeger
http://www.mecfilms.com/universe/articles/glossary.htm


Read a book called EMPIRE OF DEBT. Bonner makes the case that the only people that win in the stockmarket are insiders. He defines insiders as broker-dealers, big players and people that make their money off related stock market industries, similar to the people that sold picks and shovels to the gold miners. Also if you look at where rich, middle class and poor people hold their assets, only the rich hold a substantial portion of their assets in stocks and bonds. Only the middle class holds as large of a percentage of their assets in real estate as the rich hold in stocks/bonds. The poor, of course, hold neither asset, stock/bond or real estate for the most part.

For me, the moral of the above observation is this: if you aren't rich, don't try to play a rich man's game ... you will just become food for the rich. And this is exactly what has happened since mutual funds have enticed the middle class (even some poor) into the stock market since the early 1980s. All these people were slaughtered by the last debacle ended around 2002.

I predict the new allure is the "international market." 'Middle class suckers, come play the new INTERNATIONAL MARKET -- its better than just a mutual fund,' is the call. So Tharsaile, don't get suckered in. The reason the group you are occasioning is called DIEHARD.COM is because these "diehard" suckers refuse to acknowledge the game they're in. They desperately want to be rich, so they figure that by playing a rich man's game they will eventually BECOME rich. Wrong. The way to get rich is to:

A. Buy real estate for the rest of your life and continue to improve it and rent it, never selling anything;

B. Using equity and bank debt start some sort of business that provides a product or service that is, or goes into, great demand. Go public with the business or sell the business as an exit strategy.

C. Never drink alcohol or use drugs; work on your education, ethics and generosity constantly.

THEN when you are rich, dump these earnings into stocks and bonds where you only care basically about preservation of capital, i.e., growth rate of 5 to 10 percent.

I realize what the long-term growth rate of the stock market has been, but when you temper this with the fact that the dollar has lost over 95% of its purchasing power since the inception of the Federal Reserve System, the long term appreciation basically preserves capital and provides a slow, but granted, EXPONENTIAL growth.

Remember: the rich don't CARE about making money.

They only CARE about NOT LOSING money. I know it's difficult to understand this if you are young, dumb and hard-on bent for 20 to 30 percent ROIs (not saying this is you Tharsile), but when you get even a STABLE 5% on the relatively modest, rich-guy sum of say, $10 million, which is parked in stocks and bonds -- this is an annual income of $500,000 per year. Sure, the IRS is going to take at least 33% of this (without deductions), but who cares, you are still left with $330,000 per year.

And remember, to be a good rich guy: you don't want to work. You especially don't want to be hassled by employees, tenants, maintenance or business decisions -- you want to be "free." You want only two employees at most: your unbelievably aggressive tax accountant (who will preserve your capital) and your conservative Republican business manager (who will invest it in safe, stable stocks and bonds and get you your 5%.

Now, with your rich-guy system in place you are one of the HILTON sisters. Able to get drunk every night, travel the world (to get away from hangers-on), screw every chick or guy that has a nice ass. You are generally able to play the part -- and move to new states or countries (or take trips) when things get too hot or too boring. THIS is what it's all about, and as soon as more people in the world arrive at THIS position in life -- something the Robin Leaches of the world and Hollywood endlessly vomit -- we will all be happier and more satisfied. We will all be more fully living off the backs of the poor slaves we left in the dust, people enslaved by drugs and pharmaceuticals and cheese, and someday, AI robots. THIS state of planetary arrival is probably the basis for the Fermi Paradox. Why would other planetary societies -- that have arrived at this state -- desire to go through all the hassle of communicating with someone billions of miles away, let alone travel there. On the other hand, I DID say the rich like to travel -- so maybe they DID arrive at Roswell and infiltrate the government. This WOULD explain a lot.

Just some thoughts for you to pass on to your DIEING-HARD group Tharsaile.

>I don't understand why having an interest in investing means that nothing more important exists. Can't we be into more than one thing at the same time? Technology, perhaps?

See "Technology" and other terms in my new Glossary below.

>1000 of you saving the world. Sounds like that Ayn Rand novel. By the way, I think you're a few years too young to be a baby boomer.

Thanks for the compliment but I'm actually 99 years old.(1)

>>Well take a message back to all the morons at diehard.org: You're already dead.

>I can't -- they would delete it.

Well take the above message back, that they WILL be dead because they are playing a rich-mans' game.

James Jaeger

-------------------
(1) I'm not really 99. I just wanted you to think I was for 20 words-time. :)

Thinking about strategies By Fred Cederholm

TH*NK*NG (STRATEGIES) – Column for on/after May 12th, 2008, By Fred Cederholm)

I’ve been thinking about strategies. Actually I’ve been thinking about the 15 cent increase, inflation, the FED, energy and food, investigations, and conspiracies. A strategy is a coordinated or concerted plan of action undertaken to achieve a pre-desired end to something.

You see last Thursday we all saw an across the board increase in the price we pay for fuel at the pump of 15 cents. While I use the 10% ethanol blend in my PT Cruiser, lawnmower, weed wacker, and chain saw; the 15 cent price spike pretty much applied to regular unleaded, premium, and diesel fuel as well. This must have been some pricing strategy by all of the fuel retailers because the spike occurred everywhere (regardless of the company or the brand) at almost the same moment. In actual truth, the jump occurred at the locations to get fuel in Rochelle and DeKalb in ka-ching, ka-ching, ka-ching unison while the harmonious jumps to the prices of 13 cents in Creston and Malta occurred about two hours later. There was a brief window of opportunity to top off your tanks at these locations at the not-so-excessive prices and many took advantage of the brief arbitrage.

The fact that the apparent unitary price bump/ spike occurred everywhere at virtually the same instant for the same amount led me to TH*NK that this had to be some coordinated strategy of the oil companies to “ding” the consumers. I had already been on-line checking world-wide news and developments when a friend and neighbor stopped at the house to tell me I had better fill up immediately because a price jump was coming. I logged off and topped off my gas supplies for all of my fuel thirsty vehicles and gizmos. I then went back on-line to find out why the spike occurred. I found not one single development, catastrophe, or explanation. I found nothing to justify the jump!

This jump was not unexpected by me because I had felt that the recent further cut in interest rates by the FED of a quarter of a point would trigger a further drop in the comparative value US dollar relative to the basket of other world currencies and crude oil would re-price accordingly. The Dollar may still be the “official” currency of OPEC, but it is the value of the Euro, the British Pound, and the Japanese Yen relative to the US dollar which sets the market price for crude world-wide. When the dollar drops relative to the Euro, the Pound, and the Yen; the global price of crude (and distillates) adjusts accordingly. Sometime down the road the “at the pump price” increases occur as well. It is tragically funny how quickly the upward pricing occurs while the downward trends take their sweet time. This must be all a part of the grand strategy at work. It’s no accident, is it?

Since fuel costs figure so predominately in the pricing of our food supply, it can’t be too long before we witness the “cost push” factor of inflation in what we all pay at the stores for what we eat. Since this is an election year and the electorate is clearly not a group of “happy campers” over the perceived gouging of their households for energy and food consumed, there will undoubtedly be more Congressional investigations forthcoming. The record setting first quarter announcements of profits reaped by the oil companies triggered a barrage of hearings, investigations, and inquiries. We didn’t learn anything from them, now did we? There will be bravado/ grandstanding but little relief!

A strategy is a coordinated or concerted plan of action undertaken to achieve a pre-desired end to something. There is a distinction which must be made here. The coordinated or concerted plan of action is only a “strategy” when the ultimate goal is for the common good or general well-being. In my dictionary, when the ultimate goal achieves bad (or negative) things; we don’t have a strategy, we have a conspiracy. I TH*NK that subtle line of distinction has been crossed! I’m Fred Cederholm and I’ve been thinking. You should be thinking, too.

Copyright 2008 Questions, Inc. All rights reserved.

Thinking about registrations By Fred Cederholm

Column for on/after May 5th, 2008

I’ve been thinking about registrations. Actually I’ve been thinking about the 2008 elections, the endless campaigns, the Supreme Court, endless payment increases, and a growing malaise affecting all US/us. It is really difficult to get fired up for the coming elections which are still some six months off into the future. This is no small observation coming from me – the all-time news and political junkie! I am not alone in this feeling of weariness as many of my readers agree on this.

You see the Tuesday primary elections in Indiana and North Carolina “may” determine who will be the standard bearer for the Democratic Party in the 2008 Presidential election, but I am not counting on it. Both Senators Clinton and Obama claim they are in the fight until the 2008 Denver Convention. Senator McCain has “locked in” the Republican Party spot on the ballot. Campaigning has gone on for two years. The conventions, real debates, and podium combat still loom before us. I was disgusted and undecided about my choice options in 2004. I voted for President last and ended up actually flipping a coin - John Kerry “won” the toss! That is no way to make a voting decision.

This time I’ve threatened to write in “none of the above” and check THAT as a protest vote. Mrs. Thomas, one of my all-time favorite teachers (and League of Women Voter member), lectured me that THAT is a sorry cop-out and that she was absolutely ashamed of me for even joking about it! As always… she is completely correct. Choosing our next President is a sacred right, an honor, and a privilege - one dearly paid for by those who have gone before us and defended this land, its constitutional processes, and the American way of life. This country is in a mess no matter how you TH*NK about it. The current Newsweek cover story talks about “The Post American World” and how over 80% of our population believe the nation is on the WRONG track – a 40 plus year high!

We need leadership and a major change of course. Our next president must not only be Chief Executive and Commander in Chief, they must be an inspirational Cheerleader-in-Chief. Their oratory from the “bully pulpit” of the Oval Office must be backed with a specific bullet-point listing of the details of their agenda and plan of action with a timetable. Platitudes, clichés, and sound bites are NOT going to cut it. We need the leadership of a John Kennedy or a Ronald Reagan to fire up the populace and unite them in the hard choices we must face as a nation. Details on their plans for a turnaround have NOT been forthcoming from McCain, Obama, or Clinton. Shame on them! And… shame on US/us for not demanding such from them. Heck… they haven’t fully IDed the problems!

The recent US Supreme Court ruling upholding the Indiana photo ID requirement caused me to research voting requirements. I was shocked by what I learned. The steps necessary for voter registration, residency requirements, and time frame requirements for registration vary greatly from state to state – even for the national office elections. If you are not registered, you cannot vote. The Illinois system has shorter eligibility and registration time frames (before elections) than most states. Some require almost a full year of residency and a minimum 90 day window of registration before the elections. Illinois even has “motor voter” where you take care of the necessary paperwork at the Secretary of State’s offices for drivers’ licenses changes and renewals. This couldn’t be easier!

It is so tempting to be focused on the never ending (and escalating) bills and payments that we face every month. The barrage of the daily negatives calluses us into a numbed stupor of malaise that we can readily forget how “we” are the problem, but “we” are the solution. If you are not registered to vote; please call your County Clerk’s Office, get the relevant information, and get registered! There is still time. I’m Fred Cederholm and I’ve been thinking. You should be thinking, too.

Copyright 2008 Questions, Inc. All rights reserved.