Thinking about flip-flops By Fred Cederholm

Column for on/after June 22nd

I’ve been thinking about flip-flops. Actually I’ve been thinking about the 55 words of the Miranda warning, Election 2008, the candidates, being silent, the court of public opinion, attorney(s), and the government picking up the tab. The 1963 court case of Miranda vs. Arizona ultimately gave rise to the ever-pervasive Miranda warning which advises individuals who are being arrested of their rights. Those 55 words so often pop up in the TV dramas that the American public has committed them to memory.

You see as the Election 2008 Presidential Campaign continues to unwind; it also appears that the reading of these rights should be done to our political candidates as well. This is shaping up to be a particularly aggressive slug fest. In the 2004 election, “flip-flops” entered our lexicon as a derogatory assessment of what a candidate was doing. They said one thing, made promises, and divulged strategies only to change their minds and recant on the earlier positions. This is nothing new! The advent of the internet and proliferation of web blogs, chat rooms, and netizen monitoring has picked up the slack in news coverage and analysis by the traditional media forums. It is harder and harder to deny statements, positions, and policy declarations when clips of them are so readily available (in perpetuity) on the net.

In recent weeks I’ve noted an escalation in blog commentaries, pseudo news stories, and emails which are trashing one presidential candidate --- or the other: 100 reasons to NOT vote for…, “X” plans to greatly increase taxes and oppressive government regulation, “Y” has sold out to special interests and will sell out the country, the “wars” in Afghanistan or Iraq) will be abruptly ended (OR continue indefinitely) to the detriment of our entire way of life. Even if completely fabricated and untrue, once out there; a candidate must commit valuable time and resources to counter, deny, or refute such points.

Whoever “wins” the November election, effectively “loses!” The victor faces diplomatic, military, economic, financial, energy, social, AND philosophical powder kegs – any one of which could prove devastating to our system(s). There are NO simple, quick, and painless fixes. We need REAL leadership, but there will be a REAL temptation to resort to the security of the points of the Miranda warning.

You have the right to remain silent: What candidate has ever NOT regretted saying “something?” Even if a comment (or word choice) was sincerely and innocently made, there is safety in resorting only to clichés, platitudes, and “pabulum.” We’ve already experienced “great” rhetoric --- saying nothing!

Anything you say can and will be used against you in a court of law: Here the court of public opinion of the electorate will be the jury come November. Despite careful vetting of words, policies, and statements geared to appeal to the respective core party bases; mistakes will be made. These will require costly backtracking and/ or damage control - thus keeping the candidates from being honest and forthright with US/us. This does a major disservice to the electorate and we deserve far better than this.

You have the right to speak to an attorney, and to have an attorney present during any questioning: What candidate does NOT already have an army of attorneys, pollsters, political consultants, or spinmeisters? These were all “needed” to get the current party frontrunners to the point where they (in theory) have sewed up their respective nominations BEFORE their party’s conventions. One wonders if the messages being hawked (or planned to be hawked) are truly those of the candidates, or they are the consensus of respective campaign teams as to what the public wants to hear, are essential in firing up the party base, and are ultimately essential to winning the November Election?

If you cannot afford a lawyer, one will be provided for you at government expense: If the candidate’s team does NOT feel they can raise the necessary bucks from the party faithful, the lobbyists, the PACs, and the special interests; they can agree to abide by the constraints of accepting Federal Election Monies and suck in Uncle $ugar’s cash. This will effectively limit their final run for the White House to $100 MILLION per major party. Upwards to a HALF a BILLION was spent on the primaries!

I hope and pray the 2008 candidates don’t resort to the confines and protections of the Miranda warning. This would be a disservice to the functioning of a real horserace election. A campaign limited to “muted” debates and silent posters featuring perfect hair, pearly smiles, and postcard families; just isn’t going to cut it. I’m Fred Cederholm and I’ve been thinking. You should be thinking, too.

Copyright 2008 Questions, Inc. All rights reserved.

Thinking about installments By Fred Cederholm

Column for on/after June 15th

I’ve been thinking about installments. Actually I’ve been thinking about the housing bubble, property taxes, pecking orders, escrow payments, deficits, and cash flow. The housing bubble continues to pass its gas. While this is a huge problem that refuses to go away and continues to grow in magnitude, the stories on page one and newscasts have devoted little if any time, space, and ink to it. Fuel prices, food prices, election 2008 and “the flood” of natural disasters; have pushed it to the back burner.

You see last Friday the first installment of our property tax bills for Calendar 2007 billings came due for those of us in Ogle County, Illinois. This was particularly fitting that this time it fell on Friday the 13th. In my case, the two RE tax payments are the hands-down largest checks I write every year. The insurance premiums on my home, auto, and life policies are in distant third, fourth, and fifth place. I suspect this order of magnitude ranking is also true for a great many American households.

It will be interesting to see a few weeks down the road how many households were late (or delinquent) in meeting this critical deadline. While there might be a press release detailing the parcels which failed to get the first installment paid, it is more common to publicize the specific delinquencies about a month or so after the second installment comes due and was not paid. This usually precedes the “tax sales” publicized by the county officials responsible for the collection of the real estate taxes. The dates of these events vary from county to county - and from state to state. Still… the system of “selling” the unpaid taxes to third parties will occur on a prescribed timetable everywhere across America.

Amounts owed to the respective property tax collectors stand in the FIRST position of the pecking order of who gets their money when a homeowner falls behind in their payments. Virtually every local and regional governmental (and quasi-governmental) entity depends upon the proceeds from real estate tax revenues to underwrite the lion’s share of their expenses, salaries, and pensions. These include the county, township, and municipal governments; and the school, fire, library, and park districts as well.

Late payment or non-payment of these taxes could prove costly for the property “owners.” At the very least, there will be fines and penalties accessed. If the unpaid balances are “auctioned” off to third party investors, these investors are entitled to rates of interest that far exceed the going rates paid elsewhere right now. Annualized rates of 10%, 12%, 14%, or more are not uncommon. After a varying prescribed period of time - should the property “owner” not make full restitution for the taxes, penalties, AND interest – the third party investor could take full title to the property.

Most property occupants make supplemental monthly payments to the holders of their mortgages for the payment of the respective property taxes. These are held in escrow and tendered to the RE tax collectors by the “lenders” when the installments come due. If the mortgage escrow payments are not being made timely by the borrowers, the lenders must advance their own money to cover the taxes to “perfect” or secure their liens on the properties. Or… they simply do not make the payments on behalf of the occupants. I would suspect that since arrears in mortgage payments are escalating to record levels on a month by month basis, escrow payments are growing increasingly in arrears as well.

I would be hard pressed to cite ONE local (or regional) governmental or quasi-governmental entity that isn’t facing deficits, budgetary mismatches, and/ or cash flow problems now. Costs of this past winter far exceeded estimates/ projections. Current costs of fueling their fleets of vehicles are thru the roof. Since most of these entities have June 30th year ends, the public will not be made fully aware of these deficiencies and deficits until financial statements are made public sometime later this Summer, or Fall. These entities are counting on the RE tax proceeds right now!

Even if your household is lucky enough to be mortgage free, you are still “renting” from the local taxing bodies which appear as line items on your real estate tax bill. If you don’t believe me, just try NOT paying your property tax bills for a couple taxing cycles and see how long you are allowed to stay in your “own/ owned” home. I’m Fred Cederholm and I’ve been thinking. You should be thinking, too.

Copyright 2008 Questions, Inc. All rights reserved.

Thinking about running mates By Fred Cederholm

Column for on/after June 8th

I’ve been thinking about running mates. Actually I’ve been thinking about Campaign 2008, strategies, Vice Presidents, Lieutenant Governors, and “term” life insurance. The election/ selection process for Campaign 2008 is entering the next phase before the national party nominating conventions are held later this summer and the really hard-core campaigning begins in earnest before the November elections. We the People… pretty much know who will head the two major party tickets at this point, but who will run as the candidates for the Veep position is still a huge unknown.

You see the position of the Vice President is hardly the deciding factor in why voters cast their ballots for this nation’s chief executive. Still… the position is very important in that this is the individual who is literally a “heartbeat” away from the Oval Office in the event that the President (for whatever reason) cannot complete their term of office. Despite all of the lobbying and arm twisting from special interests and party poobahs, the final decision rests with the person at the top of the ticket. This is as it should be. It must be noted that initially in our history, the Veep was the person who came in second.

Strategies and political maneuvering do enter into the choice for positive (and negative) reasons. It should be important that the choice is an individual (who if the unTH*NKable occurs) can effectively function as the nation’s chief executive. That has not always been true. Vice Presidential running mates are sometimes selected to achieve geographical, philosophical, and political balance. This is done to garner “wider” appeal for the ticket with the general electorate, to placate special interests within the party, and even to stroke the ego/ personalities of the candidate running for President. The Veep choices maybe be made to complement the strengths of the lead candidate, or they may even be made to focus the jokes and the criticism away from the Chief executive once they are elected. We’ve seen all of this.

In my adult lifetime, there have been Vice Presidents who were eminently qualified, while there have been others who have proven to be “real pieces of work.” Really strong candidates/ personalities for the Oval Office (who felt confident of their election because of the “legacies” of their immediate predecessors) tended to pick running mates who left the voting public asking: “WHY?” When Nixon selected Agnew in 1968, the headlines ran: “What is a Spiro Agnew?” This choice proved very strategic because in the aftermath of Watergate, Nixon was secure in his tenure as the President ONLY as long as Agnew remained as the Vice President. All bets were off once Spiro was ousted, Nixon was forced to resign, and the replacement Veep Jerry Ford ultimately assumed the Presidency. Some twenty years later the electorate saw headlines: “What is a Dan Quayle?” Quayle took the brunt of the jokes and frivolous criticism. Papa Bush finished his first administration, but the team was not re-elected for a second term.

Presumed democratic candidate Barack Obama is now under a great deal of pressure to choose Mrs. Clinton as his running mate. There are strong historical precedents for this; and, in essence, this “kind of” follows in the founding fathers’ original method whereby the “second” vote-getter receives the nod. I don’t see this happening as the pre-convention campaign was too bitterly fought between the two. Despite all of the major in-party arm twisting; concerns of a troika (three horse driven vehicle) with an Obama, Clinton, AND Clinton co-presidency should more than sway Obama away from that choice.

In Illinois, we have seen similar “political” posturing in the selection of our Lieutenant Governor. There are common threads with some different twists. Corrine Wood proved to a “term” life insurance policy for former Governor Ryan. She was eminently qualified to be Lieutenant Governor and to replace the Governor - having a long history of Illinois elected office. She was a hard nosed politico who had stepped on a lot of toes over the years and made a lot of foes in the process. Despite the corruption and scandals surrounding George Ryan, the legislature left him to finish his term - in-part to preclude making Wood the Illinois Governor. George Ryan was tried, convicted, and sentenced to the slammer; AFTER he left office. Corrine Wood was denied the governorship in the process.

We in Illinois are now again enduring letting the clock run out for a highly controversial (and very negatively perceived) Governor. Rod Blagojevic can actually be said to make George Ryan look like an effective chief executive who does proud for the citizens of Illinois! His understudy, the Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn, had an almost “Dan Quayle laughableness” to him when he came into his office. Yet in his six years tenure; he has literally remade his image and the do-nothing perception of the Office of Lieutenant Governor. I’m Fred Cederholm and I’ve been thinking. You should be thinking, too.

Copyright 2008 Questions, Inc. All rights reserved.

asklet@rochelle.net

Thinking about respect And semantics By Fred Cederholm

Column for on/after June 1st

I’ve been thinking about semantics. Actually I’ve been thinking about books, hypothetical contingencies, our financial messes, election 2008, and USA - the United Spinning(s) of America. Semantics are word games. Semantics involve choosing/ using “loaded words and phrases” to bias opinions in favor of your agenda, your objective, and your side. In the alternative, careful word choices undercut your opponent’s position, strategy, and objectives. Accentuate the positive(s) and mitigate the negative(s) are first and foremost the game plan in economics, finance, marketing, and politics!

You see the forthcoming “tell-all” by former Presidential Press Secretary, Scott McClellan, that the American Public was mislead to war in Iraq by the Bush Administration and that the American Press/ media dropped the ball in the reporting of the events/ justifications leading up to the invasion on March 19th, 2003 got a great deal of media brouhaha last week. The snips and snibbets leaked during the book’s pre-release condemning the Administration (and the media) for the “non-truths” divulge nothing new. (McClellan doesn’t use the word “lies” behind the justifications for war or outing of Valerie Plame by Veep Chief of Staff Libby.) Most of US/us already “knew” or at least suspected as much. No smoking guns are revealed here. If there were… we’d have heard about them! The White House and the “speaking” friends have been amazingly silent in their direct denials – choosing rather to discredit the book as merely the disgruntled musings of a frustrated former employee seeking to cash in on his Executive Branch tenure. This also is nothing new. Truth, or true “reality,” lies somewhere in between.

Famed prosecutor and New York Times best selling author of Helter Skelter (the Tate- LaBianca murders by the Charles Manson cult), Vincent Bugliosi, has only just penned a “fictional” work – The Prosecution of George W. Bush for Murder. The McClellan book’s premises/ speculations pale in comparison to the implications of this Bugliosi work. While pre-distribution/ marketing presents “Prosecution” as a tight, meticulously researched legal case putting George W. Bush on trial in an American courtroom for the murder of nearly 4,000 American soldiers fighting in Iraq, there is already festering speculation abroad that future actions could be brought against Bush, Cheney, Powell, Rice, and/or Rumsfeld in ex-patriot jurisdictions for atrocities of war and crimes against humanity. While such may have been ultimate the fate of Noriega, Pinochet, Saddam, and Hussein’s co-horts; any extradition of Bush poobahs to face the music at some international tribunal just isn’t going to happen – trust me!

There will undoubtedly be more leaked disclosures of concerted “non-truth” telling justifying the war. I’m certain there were “good” reasons for this war, we just haven’t been made privy to them. It is not the rich, the well-born, and the powerful who pay the price of major conflicts with their blood, their injuries, their sacrifices, and their deaths. Wars for economic benefit of corporations, financial moguls, or vested interests just “don’t play well in Peoria” – you need to fire up the patriotism and the intangible beliefs of the masses to garner the necessary support as the casus belli – the justification for acts of war. The post-election Congress will undoubtedly convene more hearing investigations “to put the matter to rest” (as in bury it for a generation or more). There will be the obligatory: “Mr./Miss/Ms… what did the President know, and when did he know it?” Like Watergate of some 30 years ago, not much will come of the costly Congressional hearings, and not much will really change – cynical yes, but ultimately true.

The public was not only left out of the loop regarding the real justifications for war, we are still being kept in the dark regarding the severity and duration of our looming financial messes. Things are far from well in Mudville. Uncle $ugar is stepping up to the plate like the mighty Casey to turn the game around, but despite the $70+ plus BILLION “invested” in the US by foreign sovereign wealth funds since last August and a MUCH larger amount of freshly printed bail-out bucks from the FED; things are NOT improving. We the people… don’t as yet have a clue what will be the ultimate costs in write-offs/ write-downs for ALL that looming exposure out there. Those who might be in the know, aren’t talking.

This week should finalize the Democans and Republicrats candidates for this Presidential run in 2008. Will they fess up to the American public in their campaign messages of “change” and “straight talk” with truthful and honest disclosures of where we are, and where “they” plan to take US/us in their administrations? After all… there is tradition at stake, the USA prevails - the United Spinning(s) of America is as American as apple pie. I’m Fred Cederholm and I’ve been thinking. You should be thinking, too.

Copyright 2008 Questions, Inc. All rights reserved.

Author’s Note: I didn’t circulate last week’s column TH*NK*NG (RESPECT) because at the time it seemed too local in focus. Plus… I didn’t have access to email for almost 4 days while my ISP service provider did a MAJOR system’s upgrade and conversion. Still… there are points made in that one which take on special meaning in light of this week’s TH*NK*NG (SEMANTICS).

Column for on/after May 26th

I’ve been thinking about respect. Actually I’ve been thinking about the Memorial Day 2008 observances, Woodlawn Cemetery, the St. Johns Program, Richard Erickson, small town patriotism, and the 1 plus percent. Memorial Day is observed on the last Monday in May. It began to honor the soldiers who died in the American Civil War, and after World War I - “the war to end all wars.” It was expanded to include those who died in any war or military action as well as honoring living veterans. In the widest context, it provides an opportunity to honor anyone who is no longer with us.

You see my hometown - the little Village of Creston - like many thousands of small communities across this land make special observances on Memorial Day. Local businessman, Lyle Headon, a US Marine and Vietnam War Veteran coordinates the ceremonies and program which this year occurred at both Creston’s Woodlawn Cemetery and St John’s Lutheran Church. Woodlawn is a beautifully pastoral setting about a mile North of Creston. There is a meandering stream on two sides. Just to the North is Brody’s Grove where the original settlement was located before the railroad came thru and the village of “Dement” relocated to a “crest of a hill” along the iron horse tracks becoming Creston (nee Crest-town).

It has been a Creston tradition to gather at the cemetery to pay respects to those who have served this nation in the military in both times of war and in times of peace. Every year there is a roll call of names of all the departed veterans interred there. Woodlawn is the final resting place for veterans from the War of 1812, the America Civil War, the Spanish American War, World War I, Word War II, Korea, and Vietnam. Each veteran’s grave displays the appropriate bronze flag holder (for their service) and an American flag. Normally, weather permitting, there were patriotic songs, a special speaker, taps, and a bagpipe medley before a fellowship meal was shared by the participants at the cemetery. This year most of the program, and the common meal occurred in town at St. Johns Church.

The 2008 keynote speaker was Richard Erickson (US Army Reserves) who has only just recently completed his second tour of duty in Iraq. Richard is a quiet, soft spoken man of few words; but in his presentation, he so eloquently shared thoughts on an experience that will forever be a part of his life experience (and now ours). He looked upon his action as both a duty and a responsibility requiring sacrifices and support beyond his own person. He drew upon his family, his community, his faith, and his friends. He singled out his brother John, Leslie (John’s wife) and his mother Donna, for taking care of his two teen age children during his 23 month absence for special thanks. And…he thanked the audience of friends and neighbors for their letters, packages, and prayers. He was SO glad to be home!

In describing the ongoing conflict over there, Richard made a distinction that is so often missed in the discussions about both Iraq and Afghanistan. This is “a war,” but it is a war without distinct borders, without distinct sovereign players, without distinct ethnicities, or even distinct nationalities. (Richard’s words.) So often you just don’t know who is a friend, or a foe, until the shooting begins. These are very important components because without distinctly definable players, it is almost impossible to define success, failure, or achieve a conclusion. It is a warfare of “-ISMs” - (Fred’s words, not Richard’s.) The 150, or so, attendees hung on his every word, and were all deeply moved. The same was true for oldest attending veteran’s (Carl Hill) presentation about the “Spirit of Creston” which followed Richard’s.

In the conversations across many of the tables during the communal meal held in the Church’s fellowship hall, a primary focus remained about our ongoing presence in Iraq and Afghanistan. This is very understandable given that literally everyone in this little Northern Illinois community of under 600 has at least one family member, friend, and/ or loved one (or more) presently serving in Afghanistan, or Iraq, (or has one in training and soon to be deployed there). There is Jason (1), Greg, Jason (2), Ann, Kevin, and Derek already over there. Adam is in training at Camp Pendleton, and Charlie is in training at Fort Benning. I should point out that these are ONLY the names of those who are aged 24 and younger! This alone equates to well over 1% of our total local population (of all ages). Please TH*NK about the implications of THAT for a moment!!!

For us in this small rural community in America’s Heartland each name equates to a face with a family – all of whom we know and love. We are the “Land of the Free, Because of the Brave.” Please remember these young people (and their families) in your Memorial Day thoughts and prayers. I’m Fred Cederholm and I’ve been thinking. You should be thinking, too.

Copyright 2008 Questions, Inc. All rights reserved.