Peak Pork - Is The Unthinkable Happening? By Wayne N. Krautkramer

Most of us have heard about Peak Oil!
A lawyer recently made the claim that silver is more valuable than gold due to Peak Silver!

How many have noticed the obvious evidence of Peak Pork!

Both the USDA and the National Pork Producers Council have steadfastly refused to respond to our inquires.

The question is why? Is their evasion possible proof of a global conspiracy to profit on skyrocketing pork prices?

Chief Chop, leader of the Porcine group, apparently issued an ultimatum through his interim chief ambassador (Petunia Pig) to the leading food chain. During our interview, Chief Chop alluded to some possible slowdown of production. His exact oinks were "We may farrow no more if we don’t get some barrels soon"! This cryptic message sent us into "Condition Red" (full research status).

A diligent search found the address of Petunia Pig, and our interviews tracked her down to her sty in a Las Vegas Hotel/Casino. She graciously agreed to an interview because it was rare occasion when someone noticed the Pig Plight!
Petunia explained that the porcine intellectual class has finally revolted at the historical denial of their basic rights. The true cause of their plight simply stems from economics. She then oinked that the current global conflict is completely motivated by porcine economics. When asked to elaborate, she stated that only a fool would believe that oil, or theological/religious differences were the cause of the crisis between the Muslim and non- Muslim worlds.

We admitted that we were a bit confused by this position, considering the difference in the value of oil and hogs! She explained that there was more to this then meets the snout! The US is not sufficient in crude oil, but the US is almost supreme in corn production, and the US grows too many soybeans, if one uses the amount of agricultural subsidies as an indication that the real price is too low. No free market (non subsidy) farmer to be foolish enough to plant a soybean crop! The economics of sugar is even stranger.

Petunia explained that hogs can be raised anywhere, and nothing uses all that unwanted corn and soybean meal faster than growing piglets! She also mentioned that the new synthetic fuels made from crops had a few problems. So just solve the problem by raising hogs. But there were major economic/political problems involved. We responded that the solution seemed so obvious that only a fool could ignore it. She gently destroyed our simple view of politics by explaining the reality of the system.

The pork producers want the highest possible price, and the grain farmers are now addicted to their subsidies. Augmenting them are the state and federal employees who make their living from this system. Then we have to add the loss of political power that the politicians would take if free market mechanisms were allowed to return. This loss of their power would also result in a major economic loss for them, as the special interest groups would no longer give them large amounts of money to influence legislation! This creates another problem as it would also be the end of the special interest group scam.

There would also be a challenge to some of the religious groups, as they claim to have "divinely inspired" dietary rules. A major change to a pro pork position would suggest that the religious groups might have been less than forthcoming when they created their dietary laws. Petunia felt that some of the Creators spokespersons may have been influenced by filthy lucre!

Petunia went so far as to suggest that the pork producer groups may be influencing certain persons to create as much conflict as possible between the Muslim and non-Muslim world just to keep the price of pork high. It’s also interesting that this strategy keeps all the pork going, so to speak!

From the mouth of a swine came the truth of our time!

WHAT DOES ALL THIS HAVE TO DO WITH PEAK PORK, YOU MIGHT ASK?

Everything, because we are now encountering a barrel shortage! The demand for Crude Oil has taken most of the barrel inventory, leaving few barrels available for pork! The pork purveyors (the government and it’s employees) are beginning to increase their larcenous ways, as recent revelations about US government officials, and their lobbyists, clearly prove! Take the money and run appears to be the current strategy!

What do they know? When did they first find out? That would be telling!
The old collectivist Franklin Delano Roosevelt had replaced Marie Antionette’s
famous statement "Let them eat cake"! with the unspoken "give em pork"! Tax and spend became the way of the land. Spend was more important than tax, as the current true national debt proves. The latest available estimate is over $40 trillion dollars!

The US has been on a pork diet for some 73 years. The pork analogy is very relevant here, as our financial system is obviously suffering from some horrible affliction. It may well be that the US has contracted Trichinellosis of the financial system.

DEFYING CONSTRAINTS

We have been doing some serious abundance expressing! The results of running our lives under the direction of the pure light beings Orin and DaBen is hard to predict I wonder what happens when Orin, DaBen, and Ramtha disagree. How does a mere mortal reconcile conflicting light beams? We have allowed the pure energy receivers (channelers) to persuade us to think beyond scarcity and constraints. In fact, we have now expressed our grandchildren’s abundance. You can’t get any more unconstrained than this!

RUNNING OUT OF FUEL AT 75,000 FEET!

"Bush budget seeks deep cutbacks". "The $2.58 trillion (£1.38 trillion) budget submitted to Congress affects 150 domestic programmes from farming to the environment, education and health"

Here we see the beginning of the end for the pork peddlers. The wailing and gnashing of teeth has already begun, but all the current administration has done is cut down the rate of increase of the pork buffet.

"The Senate took up far-reaching legislation yesterday that would slice $39 billion over the next five years from a slew of entitlement programs, including Medicare, Medicaid, student loans and agriculture subsidies, while raising revenue by opening Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil drilling. A final vote is due Thursday."

HOW DOES THIS ENDGAME PLAY OUT?

The Government must cut back as there is a major realignment of the economies of the world occurring, resulting in a loss of many of the highest paying jobs. The US economy continues to create new jobs, but many are at a significantly lower wage. The net effect is a permanent cutback of tax revenue, as the lower paying jobs generate significantly less tax revenue. Service economies are losers at generating tax revenue when compared to manufacturing economies.

Therefore, there must be continuing pressure on the government to cut spending to avert a financial debacle in the currency and debt markets of the world Governments will increase their cooperation in the economic sphere to ensure that the wealth generation process is sufficient to meet basic needs. Ah! There’s the rub! Basic needs will be redefined in the advanced countries, as the citizens have become accustomed to a non-sustainable standard of living!

Dr. Chris Martenson has described the situation very well in his recent article, U.S. IN TECHNICAL DEFAULT.

"Because in all my time studying economics I have determined only one thing; there’s no free lunch. Pay now or pay later but pay we will.

Or, more accurately, we hope that our kids will, and not stiff us for the bill. But if they did, who could blame them?

I, for one, would not be shocked."

FAST FORWARD TO 2010

The top song of the year 2010 is "Where has all the pork gone"

" far far away "

"Some of it went as far as Uruguay"

WayneN.Krautkramer

Onlypill@cox.net

http://onlypill.tripod.com/generaleconomics/id28.html

Baby Boomer Time Bombs by Mish

Baby Boomer Time Bombs

Warning: This is a very long post, 14 pages or so printed.It covers 5 aspects of the Boomer Time Bomb. I have been gathering material on this for months and finally decided to write it all up. I tossed out dozens of references that I could have included but then it would have been 40 pages long or so.

Some aspects of this are well known, others less so.In spite of all Bush's hype about Social Security, SS is one of the smaller problems on the list. Social Security is a big problem of course, but closer to now, which of course is all anyone ever worries about these days, is the affect of 10,000 boomers a day retiring starting 2006. More to the point, one has to wonder about promises that have been made to those boomers, and the preparedness (or lack thereof) of many approaching retirement. One also has to consider the demographics looking forward.

The pension problems at GM and Delphi and airlines are widely known but what about state government promises, local government promises? What about cities like San Diego and Duluth that are nearly bankrupt over promises that can not be met? What about states like New Jersey that are borrowing money by selling bonds to fund pension plans then investing that money on the hope and prayer that the stock market will provide adequate returns? What about Illinois? How about silly promises made by the state of Washington? The list goes on and on and on. That is why the following is 14 pages long. I take a look at Social Security, Medicare, Defined Benefit plans, stock market effects, and other savings (or lack thereof).I talked about The Boomer Time Bomb on my latest podcast with HoweStreet in addition to predictions for 2006. Perhaps some want to tune in to that at http://www.howestreet.com/goldradio/interview.php?audioId=183 This is an important issue and I hope everyone gives due consideration as to how they may be affected by promises that probably can not be kept.

Here goes:Five components to The Baby Boomer Time Bomb:
1) Social Security
2) Medical Expenses
3) Defined Benefit Pension Plans
4) The Stock Market
5) Other Savings

to be continued at: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2006/01/baby-boomer-time-bombs.html

312 Million for This? By Mish

Toll Brothers, Meritage Homes and Simon Property Group Joint Venture announce the purchase of a 5,485-acre land parcel in Phoenix's Northwest Valley for $312 Million.It is the largest real estate transaction in Arizona history.

The Maricopa County property, which DaimlerChrysler currently utilizes as a vehicle endurance testing and development facility, is bound by 183rd Avenue on the east, 211th Avenue on the west, Dove Valley on the south and Joy Ranch Road on the north. DaimlerChrysler will continue to lease the property for the next few years, in order to plan and accommodate for the orderly transition of its testing operations.Toll Brothers and Meritage Homes each plan to build a significant number of homes on the site. Simon Property Group, Inc. has the option to purchase a substantial portion of the commercial property. Other parcels may be sold to third parties. Initial plans call for a mixed-use master planned community, which will include approximately 4,840 acres of single-family homes and attached homes. Approximately 645 acres of commercial and retail development will include schools, community amenities and open space. Initial homes sales are tentatively scheduled to begin in 2009. According to the approved General Plan, the site allows between 15,000 to 31,000 homes.Robert I. Toll, chairman and chief executive officer of Toll Brothers, Inc., stated: "We are thrilled to have been chosen by DaimlerChrysler and to have teamed up with two excellent partners to develop this fabulous piece of real estate. The northwest area of Phoenix has experienced unprecedented popularity and this particular parcel is a highly coveted site."$312 million for 5,485 acres of desert with a testing track on it. That amounts to $56,882 dollars per acre of flat desert.Enquiring Mish bloggers might be wondering exactly where "Phoenix's Magnificent Northwest Valley" is. Thru the wonder of Google satellite imagery I am pleased to show everyone the following pictures of just what that consortium of buyers got for their $312 million.Here is this "highly coveted site"......

to be continued at: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2006/01/312-million-for-this.html

A tale Of Two Strategies; Or How The Airline Industry Blew it By Wayne N. Krautkramer

There were some changes in the airline markets over the last few years. Each airline was subjected to the same environment. The first change occurred in passenger bookings, and all airlines had to deal with that change. The change in energy costs is a different story. Some businesses used the correct strategy, and the rest did nothing, as the results show!

The First Strategy. Do Nothing!

This has a been a terrible two years for most of the US airlines. The unforeseen happened, and the poor airlines were mauled by the evil free market in energy!
Let’s look at the last two years to see how well the industry has managed its resources.

Delta Airlines Bankrupt Flyi Inc. Bankrupt
Northwest Airline Bankrupt
United Airlines Bankrupt
US Air Professional Bankrupts? Bankrupt for the 2nd time

AMR Not bankrupt but still bleeding (Management by Hemophiliacs?)
Many other US air carriers are in serious trouble.

Before we indulge in the obligatory wailing and gnashing of teeth, let’s look at the 2nd strategy!

The Second Strategy. Hedge Your Uncontrollable Expenses!

Southwest Airlines and Alaska Airlines knew that they could not afford a major increase in their costs. These management teams found the old "we’ll just raise the price" argument to be uncertain!

Exhibiting true management skills, they hedged their fuel costs by buying options and futures contracts through 2007. By this tactic, they were freed from the uncertainty of their fuel costs, and focused their efforts on running their businesses. Southwest and Alaska had no intention of speculating about things that are out of their area of expertise!

Let’s see the results of this hedging strategy!

"Southwest Airlines Co. and the parent of Alaska Airlines turned in strong third-quarter results on Thursday, cashing in winning bets they made on the direction of fuel prices.

US airlines are seeing strong demand for travel, and they have even had a bit of success in pushing up ticket prices, but high fuel prices have kept giants like American Airlines in the red.

Not so at Southwest and Alaska Air Group Inc., which were more aggressive than their rivals in taking options to buy fuel far into the future at set prices, a practice known as hedging.

Southwest said Thursday it earned $227 million, or 28 cents per share, in the third quarter, including an $87 million gain from its hedging. Analysts had expected 18 cents per share, according to a survey by Thomson Financial, and the results beat Southwest's year-ago profit of $119 million, or 15 cents per share"

"Seattle-based Alaska Air Group, which operates Alaska Airlines and Horizon Air, used hedging to save on half the fuel it bought. Its profit rose to $90.2 million, or $2.71 per share. Excluding the impact of special items, net income would have been $71.5 million, or $2.16 per share, still enough to beat Wall Street's forecast of $2.12 per share.

JetBlue Airways Corp. reported a profit of $2.7 million, or 2 cents per share, when analysts were forecasting a penny per share loss. But JetBlue was not as insulated from fuel prices as Southwest and Alaska, and it fell short of a year-ago profit of $8.1 million, or 7 cents a share.

New York-based JetBlue also said high fuel costs would push it to a loss for the fourth quarter and the year as a whole.

"Southwest, however, said it will pay the equivalent of $26 a barrel of oil -- less than half the current price -- for 85 percent of the fuel it will need in the fourth quarter. Alaska locked in 50 percent of its fuel for this year at about $30 a barrel of oil.

Hedging let Dallas-based Southwest cut its average cost of fuel to 95 cents per gallon in the third quarter -- far less than the other carriers who have released results for the July-to-September period. Alaska Airlines paid $1.56 a gallon, and JetBlue paid $1.70 -- and expects $2 a gallon the rest of the year. Continental Airlines Inc. paid $1.88 a gallon, and AMR Corp.'s American Airlines paid nearly $1.89.

JetBlue hedged against only about 20 percent of its fourth-quarter fuel at about $30 a barrel, and American Airlines only 8 percent at $48 a barrel, leaving them at the mercy of open market prices.

Fuel was 19.6 percent of Southwest's operating expenses, compared with 23.7 percent at Continental, 27 percent at Alaska and Horizon, 29 percent at American and 31.4 percent at JetBlue, according to figures provided by the companies.
Southwest is poised to continue reaping this advantage, with deals to buy more than half its fuel through 2007 at prices far below current levels."

"

Independence Air ceased operations on Thursday night, 18 months after launching service as a low-cost carrier.

The airline's last scheduled flights trickled into Independence's hub at Washington Dulles Airport late Thursday. The company shut down its web reservations and flight information system earlier in the evening.

Roughly 2,700 employees will lose their jobs.

Independence, a unit of FLYi, sought Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in November but failed to attract investors to keep flying into 2006. The carrier was squeezed by low-fare competition and record-high fuel prices."

And the carnage continues into 2006. Most of the carnage is due to these airlines failure to hedge their fuel costs!

Summary
This article shows that Southwest Airlines, Alaska Air, and Jet Blue are not begging for the taxpayers to bail them out of their mistakes!
They had to deal with the drop in revenue when people were avoiding flying, but they hedged their fuel costs, and they are prospering!
This is a wake up call to realize that not hedging the major costs that you can hedge is tantamount to rank speculation!
Remember, you might lose your bet, and your business, if you’re wrong!
The markets offer many ways to transfer some of your risk to others. Use them, or wind up like the US airlines!

Wayne N. Krautkramer

onlypill.cox.net

http://onlypill.tripod.com/toolsofthetrade

Everybody has accepted by now that change is unavoidable. But that still implies that change is like death and taxes it should be postponed as long as possible and no change would be vastly preferable. But in a period of upheaval, such as the one we are living in, change is the norm. Peter F. Drucker

The Political Catastrophes Series by Joost van Steenis

Sihanoukville, Januari 13 2006

Dear reader. I wish you a very happy New Year.

This article is the fourteenth article in the series Political Catastrophes ( http://members.chello.nl/jsteenis/catastrophes.htm).

Nothing will happen when you remain seated in your chair waiting toll heaven comes down on earth. Change occurs only when you become active. But not all movement leads to change. See for example article 4 in the series Political Catastrophes ( http://members.chello.nl/jsteenis/catastrophes4.htm) or the articles 1, 5 and 12.

An important factor for change is that only masspeople should be involved in Movements for a Fundamental Change. They should not be active in factors that are ultimately controlled by elitepersons as political parties, elections or the trade-union movement.

Another important factor emphasizes that activities should disturb the private living space of elitepeople so they cannot anymore live the privileged life on the safe eliteworld. At the same time masspeople will realise that they do not have to continue their subordinated life on the often harsh massworld.

An example of a small psychological factor that somewhat disturbs the eliteworld is connected to language.

On the European Continent differences between people are accentuated by the use of you (du, tu, jij) in the downward direction and the use of thou (Sie, vous, u) when masspeople have to speak to elitepeople. The elite does not like it when one of its symbols of power is undermined.

See for example the reactions on the casual striped, multicoloured sweater the new Bolivian president Morales was wearing during his visits to European leaders. The elitist protocol is also a symbol of elitist power that will cease to exist in a new society.

Since fifty years there has been some movement in The Netherlands to abolish the use of thou. It has become quite common that pupils and teachers address each other with first names and you. The leading class is seemingly shocked by this mass activity that diminishes the distance between rulers and ruled. Someone proposed "to improve discipline in schools by making it compulsory for pupils to address teachers with madam, sir and thou."

But the language and the dress-code factors are too small to cause a fundamental change. These factors are only an example how common people can autonomously contribute to the undermining of the power of the elite.

For a political catastrophe more important factors have to increase, Masspeople can also contribute to these factors in an autonomous and creative way on the time and the place they choose.

Yours truly, Joost van Steenis
http://members.chello.nl/jsteenis
Ways to increase masspower

A Short Story About Billions and Trillions By SB Kayser

From the rants and observations series.

Our honored Guest and owner of the site named BabylonToday, dropped us a line 2 weeks or so ago to warned us of the following: In the next day or two Treasury will post interest for December 2005. I suspect it could run over 100 billion for Dec. alone, since this is one of two fat months (also June) for interest. ... So we went to the gov site where we read the shocking truth: December $ 92,920,923,827.69

Our pal's estimate was nearly correct. That the amount wasn't over $100bn shouldn't us any sense of a respite, we are dealing with an administration out of control and ready to borrow us into oblivion.

The more frightening is to see the jump over the last 18 years. December 2005 alone represents more or less 40% of the interests paid for the whole year of 1988 and which were: $214,145,028,847.73.

In one month!!

Also worrying is when we compare 92.9bn with $352,350,252,507.90 which is the amount of interest for the entire fiscal year of 2005, or nearly one thrid.

Sadly many americans are number blind when optimism lacks in the articles they read whatsoever: all what matters to them is that the Dow and the consumer conficence index perform well. And since it reached the 11,000 bench mark a few days ago, why bother? Right?!

Over the three last weeks alone, I have noticed the following:

That according to Siglitz, the Nobel prize-winning economist and probably the most vocal against WB and IMF, Iraq war could cost US over $2 trillion.

That the U.S trade deficit with China et al is now $700bn with no sign of slowing down; the federal budget deficit expected to balloon back above $400 billion for the fiscal year 2005 ... and finally Congress urging to raise the debt cealing which stands today at $8trillion-plus to avoid an unprecendent default.


Meanwhile Wall Street Gurus pat themselves on the back for having pocketed $21.5bn in bonuses for their own fiscal year 2005, all this at the expense of a middle-class caught in the inferno of debt and inflation, in other words on its death bed but which is paradoxically very proud to have achieved the American Dream of home ownership and being able to afford their kids' high education degrees.

High education?! Yes, dear readers the conventional wisdom has defined as **high education** the knowledge allowing such aberations to exist. People get college degrees to feed a monetary monstrousity. The only real money - that having an intrisic value besides gold and silver - in the world are the banking interests, odious sweat money. Eventually the compounding interests will gobble us all. I am not talking of some far way probability but "a" day of reckoning lying right around the corner.

If you wish to help stop the insanity, please email us at interest_free_money@juno.com

Lobbyists By Fred Cederholm

I’ve been thinking about lobbyists. Actually I’ve been thinking about serving the public, system corruption, Abramoff, legality, outrage, and golf. Things are heating up in the ongoing saga of political corruption and scandal that is undermining our government and rocking the foundations of our representative democracy.

You see now more than ever, there is reason to question if elected officials are serving the public good, or rather serving a select group of insiders on the payrolls of special interests – thereby feeding their own egos and lifestyles in the process. The system has been prostituted and is broken. “You get what you pay for” and “you must pay for what you get” are the central ground rules for legislation, and regulation – or should I say de-regulation. In Washington, you pay for what you want to have happen. In the alternative, you also pay for what you don’t. This was NOT the system envisioned by our founding fathers and constitution.

The case/drama of Jack Abramoff, K Street’s man in black, is nothing new in DC. It’s the current chapter of an all too real novel about greed, corruption, and excess in government which now finds itself the story on page one. We really should thank Jack for his guilty pleas and his “cooperation” with prosecutors because now maybe, just maybe, we will see reform and redress. “Connections in Washington” takes on new meaning as the culpable parties worry who is wearing a wire – and who isn’t. Given we are entering an election/re-election cycle, I hope and pray THIS is the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

The incumbents implicated will argue that they have done nothing “illegal.” Notice the choice of word – not using unethical, immoral, or wrong. But… we’ve heard that before, and we shall hear that defense again and again. I mean illegal means against the law; let us not forget who is reaping the benefits and who is making the laws. Some recipients have already attempted to cleanse/launder the ill-gotten proceeds by returning them, or “contributing them to a worthy charity.” Let us also remember that “accountability in government” has become a tallying of “who has contributed what,” and more importantly, “what more can be expected?”John McCain put it so well: “Money is the crack cocaine of politics.” (Wasn’t he one of the Keating five?)

The public should be outraged, mad as hell, and not accept such any longer. We are seeing so many revelations coming to a head at one time in this election cycle. Will the pendulum swing to bring real change in the players (the guilty incumbents), the policies of allowable fund raising and influence peddling, and the installation of real checks and controls?

This nation was founded under the premise that our government was to be one “of the people, by the people, and for the people.” What happened? Egos rule over sound judgment. Our federal congress, state legislatures, and executive branches are the most exclusive clubs on the planet – and the most elusive unless you are independently mega-wealthy - or have a political organization which can raise mega-bucks. This was NOT the intention of our founding fathers and the framers of our constitution, but… it IS the reality of our present system.


Election/appointment to high public office elevates mere mortals - albeit highly motivated ones – to levels of power and influence. Holding such offices provides opportunities to make a difference for the public good. As we so often see, it also fluffs egos and it brings on temptations. While some do succumb, many do not; and for those I am so very thankful.

In my three years as an investigative accountant for the FDIC/RTC working on the savings and loan debacle, golf also frequently figured into the mix providing vivid and juicy sound bites and visions of corrupted excess. The final deals for the costliest real estate failures were cut by the developers as they wined and dined the “bankers” with first class transportation and five star resorts/courses over “friendly games of golf.” I wonder how much judgment was clouded because the eyes were focused on the ball and not on the till? I’m Fred Cederholm and I’ve been thinking. You should be thinking, too.

Copyright 2006 Questions, Inc. All rights reserved.

Greenspan, The Queen, and the Fed blundered badly! By Wayne N. Krautkramer

Greenspan, The Queen, and the Fed blundered badly!

"On September 26, 2002, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan received an honorary knighthood from Britain's Queen Elizabeth II."
"It is an honour shared by former U.S. President Ronald Reagan, former U.S. President George Bush, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, entertainer Bob Hope and U.S. Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf."

The reTorying of the United States has occured without any serious discussion by the media, with the singular serious challenge appearing in the British Broadcasting Corporation article on Tuesday, 12 March, 2002, 18:26 GMT.
There had been some chatter in the US media about the legality of knighting Rudolph Giuliani.The BBC article proved that it was a legal action, per the US Constitution.

The true value of this article was not apparent until September 26, 2002. This article clearly defined the conditions a US citizen must meet to be knighted!
The knighting of Giuliani was legitimate, but the knighting of Alan Greenspan was a different kettle of fish.

This is not mere hairsplitting, because we are discussing the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System of the USA. Then there is all that disinformation, and intrigue, that surrounds the Federal Reserve. The act of knighting Alan Greenspan forces the issue into scrutiny.

The mainstream media, and many internet journalists, continue to assert that the Federal Reserve is a government agency. Their position is untenable since the knighting of Greenspan!

The Constitution of the USA is very clear on the issue of ctizens receive foreign titles, gifts, and renumeration!

"The Articles of Confederation, Article VI states: "nor shall the united States in Congress assembled, or any of them, grant any Title of nobility."

The Constitution for the united States, in Article, I Section 9, clause 8 states: "No Title of nobility shall be granted by the united States; and no Person holding any Office or Profit or Trust under them, shall, without the Consent of the Congress, accept of any present, Emolument, Office, or Title, of any kind whatever, from any King, Prince, or foreign State." "

The reason for this absolute prohibition is expounded upon by Alexander Hamilton, Federalist, no. 84, 575--81

"Nothing need be said to illustrate the importance of the prohibition of titles of nobility. This may truly be denominated the corner stone of republican government; for so long as they are excluded, there can never be serious danger that the government will be any other than that of the people."

The American intolerance of foreign titles is best espressed by the THE "MISSING THIRTEENTH AMENDMENT"

On January 18, 1810, Republican Senator Philip Reed introduced a constitutional amendment addressing the acceptance of titles of nobility by American citizens.(31) It was referred to a select committee of three,(32) and twice afterwards to a larger committee of five,(33) which submitted several versions of the amendment to the Senate.(34) The amendment was approved by the Senate by a vote of 19 to 5 on April 27, 1810, in the following form:
If any citizen of the United States shall accept, claim, receive, or retain, any title of nobility, or honor, or shall, without the consent of Congress, accept any present, pension, office or emolument, of any kind whatever, from any Emperor, King, Prince or foreign Power, such person shall cease to be a citizen of the United States, and shall be incapable of holding any office of trust or profit under them, or either of them.

The final dispostion of this amendment is one of the real mysteries of history!
It is obvious that the receiving of a foreign title by a person holding any Office of Trust or Profit is forbidden, unless the Congress approves. This is a major issue, according to the Constitution of the USA.!

IT’S TIME FOR THE MAIN ENTREE!
We know that Alan Greenspan was appointed to the Chairman of the Federal Reserve in 1987.

We know that Alan Greenspan is just now retiring from his position as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board.

We know that Alan Greenspan was Knighted by the Queen of England on September 26, 2002.

We have been unable to find any records indicating that the US Congress consented to Greenspan’s knighthood.

We are always told that the Federal Reserve System is a govenment agency!

Something is rotten in the state of Denmark! In fact, it’s so rotten that we can smell it in the US.

Let’s use some formal logic to solve this.

MAJOR PREMISE
"The Constitution for the united States, in Article, I Section 9, clause 8 states: "No Title of nobility shall be granted by the united States; and no Person holding any Office or Profit or Trust under them, shall, without the Consent of the Congress, accept of any present, Emolument, Office, or Title, of any kind whatever, from any King, Prince, or foreign State." "

MINOR PREMISE
Alan Greenspan was knighted by the Queen of England without the Consent of Congess while acting as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board.

CONCLUSION
Alan Greenspan is a private citizen! And if Alan Greenspan is a private citizen, then the Federal Reserve System must be private.

We know that the major premise is unassailable!

We have been unable to find any record of the US Congress consenting to Greenspan’s title. However, the Congress would not have to give it’s consent if the Federal Reserve System is private!

If Alan Greenspan is a public officer, then the Congress of the US, and Alan Greenspan, have participated in a high crime against the USA.

Alan Greenspan is extremely intelligent, and would probably decline to commit a high crime!

Unfortunately, no serious person would assume the presence of intelligence in the Congress.

The amazing part of all this is the absolute silence of the normally howling media. "The dog did nothing in the night-time!"

"Is there any point to which you would wish to draw my attention?" "To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time." "The dog did nothing in the night-time." "That was the curious incident," remarked Sherlock Holmes. (It's from the short story "Silver Blaze".) "

Apparently the media won’t bite the hand that FEDS them.
The fog may have finally lifted from the Federal Reserve, and it is now revealed as the private bank it really is!

One last bit of evidence that should tip the scales of the undecided!

SECTION 5—Stock Issues; Increase and Decrease of Capital
1. Amount of Shares; Increase and Decrease of Capital; Surrender and Cancellation of Stock

The capital stock of each Federal reserve bank shall be divided into shares of $100 each. The outstanding capital stock shall be increased from time to time as member banks increase their capital stock and surplus or as additional banks become members, and may be decreased as member banks reduce their capital stock or surplus or cease to be members. Shares of the capital stock of Federal reserve banks owned by member banks shall not be transferred or hypothecated. When a member bank increases its capital stock or surplus, it shall thereupon subscribe for an additional amount of capital stock of the Federal reserve bank of its district equal to 6 per centum of the said increase, one-half of said subscription to be paid in the manner hereinbefore provided for original subscription, and one-half subject to call of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. A bank applying for stock in a Federal reserve bank at any time after the organization thereof must subscribe for an amount of the capital stock of the Federal reserve bank equal to 6 per centum of the paid-up capital stock and surplus of said applicant bank, paying therefor its par value plus one-half of 1 per centum a month from the period of the last dividend. When a member bank reduces its capital stock or surplus it shall surrender a proportionate amount of its holdings in the capital stock of said Federal Reserve bank. Any member bank which holds capital stock of a Federal Reserve bank in excess of the amount required on the basis of 6 per centum of its paid-up capital stock and surplus shall surrender such excess stock. When a member bank voluntarily liquidates it shall surrender all of its holdings of the capital stock of said Federal Reserve bank and be released from its stock subscription not previously called. In any such case the shares surrendered shall be canceled and the member bank shall receive in payment therefor, under regulations to be prescribed by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, a sum equal to its cash-paid subscriptions on the shares surrendered and one-half of 1 per centum a month from the period of the last dividend, not to exceed the book value thereof, less any liability of such member bank to the Federal Reserve bank.
[12 USC 287. As amended by act of Aug. 23, 1935 (49 Stat. 713

Sure, this is exactly how government agencies operate. What would shares in the IRS would be worth.?

Forget the Dow, and buy the Tax Farmers.

The commercial banks own the shares of the Federal Reserve Bank. Sorry, you can’t buy of these shares! These bankers are such selfish curs.

For a quick review of the history of the Federal Reserve System, go to: http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1095269452.php

I hope the reader has learned as much as I did while researching the Federal Reserve System!

The next time a Tory uses the argumentum ad hominem device (calling the Fed challengers "conspiracy nuts"), show them this article. Then ask them to explain the events logically!

Remember, it’s not polite to laugh when they become flummoxed!

If any reader can prove to me that there was any Congressman, or libertarian, free market (AKA Capitalist) writer who challenged the knighthood of Alan Greenspan on the grounds of the US Constitution, let them send me the proof. They will win a three month subscription to the THE TRENDTRACKER (copyright 2006).


Wayne N. Krautkramer onlypill@cox.net
http://onlypill.tripod.com/generaleconomics/id27.html

Once upon a time.. By Carl Martin Andersen

ONCE UPON A TIME…

©Copyright 2002 Carl Martin Andersen

Once upon a time, there was a powerful island nation with a strong navy and colonies far and wide. It had a king and a queen who ruled the land and all their royal subjects....

(A tale about the money-power game and Human Rights explained in simple terms for everyone)

http://www.moneyfiles.org/once.pdf

Be on the lookout for the omens of 2006 ... By Fred Cederholm

TH*NK*NG (OMENS) – Column for on/after Jan 1st, By Fred Cederholm)

Be on the lookout for the omens of 2006 ... we’re in for quite a year!

I’ve been thinking about omens. Actually I’ve been thinking about the Fed, the deficits, benefits, politics, the “I” words, and energy. 2005 was quite a year indeed, and 2006 is shaping up to be another doozie. It would be comforting to know was is going to be coming at us in the next twelve months, but very few individuals are blessed with a Nostradamus gene.

You see, predictions are just that- a composite of “pre” meaning before and “dictus” meaning a saying – in effect, predictions are a “telling before” an outcome happens. Omens, on the other hand, are occurrences (or snapshots) which give a TH*NK*NG person a warning and, in hindsight, should have been taken as a heads-up for what is to come in the future. The events experienced in 2005 and those to unfold in 2006 should prepare us for what we can expect.

The Federal Reserve, America’s central bank, is perhaps the most important institution on the planet and is a significant omen provider. In January Chairman Greenspan will retire after serving seventeen years and Ben Barnacke will take the helm. We’ve seen 13 consecutive quarter percent rate increases with another expected in January and a 15th expected when Ben assumes leadership. There is much speculation regarding other resignations/retirements with a significant exodus expected. Is this a case of “new coach, new team,” or is the crew nervous about serving on the continued voyage of the Titanic in the troubled waters ahead?

2005 saw record deficits in our trade imbalance and that of our federal budget. The US required a daily infusion of over a BILLION a day in NEW foreign capital at the start of the year. By year’s end, this mandatory external funding was approaching two BILLION a day. Foreign entities now “hold” approximately 45% of our “publicly” held national debt. Watching the weekly auctions for continued rollovers and additional investment from these external entities and governments will be a key omen source.

Employee benefits, namely health care coverage and retirement pensions, were frequent stories on page one in 2005. The recent transit workers strike in New York City was not about wages, but rather focused on continuation of the expected benefits. One airline after another has gone thru bankruptcy restructuring and the “key” to the restructuring was seeking absolution from the promised benefit obligations. The auto industry has followed the “resolutions” closely with GM and Ford both looking for a similar escape from their benefit commitments. How much can be “forgiven” - with the remainder passing to the government, and the taxpayers?

2006 will be an election year. This will provide us with many omens (and me with the subjects for numerous columns). Will we see our indistinguishable major political parties – Tweedle-tax-and-spend and Tweedle-borrow-and-spend, the Siamese twins tied by a mutual addiction to big government – break from their profligate ways? How dirty will the summer’s campaigns be? How will the candidates and their parties “re-invent” themselves to get elected?

The “I” words, investigations, indictment(s), and impeachment, will figure heavily in the rhetoric from the beltway in 2006. Will Libby/Plame take down Rove, and Cheney? Congress is hot to trot to investigate what truth was told about the Iraqi war, the Downing Street Memo, the Abramoff scandal(s), and domestic surveillance without benefit of warrant(s). The White House is hot to trot to investigate who’s been leaking info. As these dramas unfold, we the people will be inundated with omens, but will anything really happen, or change?

Energy, or rather the access to it, will be a constant source of omens. The Tehran Bourse (exchange) begins in March and marks a frontal assault on the US dollar as the “official” currency for global energy purchases. The US now imports over 2/3rds of its energy needs. Venezuela and Nigeria figure heavily in providing it. What will new treaties, pipeline proposals/construction, multinational acquisitions, diplomatic deterioration, and global warfare/unrest signal regarding the future of Uncle $ugar’s essential (and external) sources?

Be on the lookout for the omens of 2006 and watch for my coming columns, we’re in for quite a year. I’m Fred Cederholm and I’ve been thinking. You should be thinking, too.

Copyright 2006 Questions, Inc. All rights reserved.


the article appeared in:
http://www.vheadline.com/readnews.asp?id=47561
and
http://baltimorechronicle.com/2005/123105Cederholm.shtml

The history of the Commitments of Traders (COT) report By Wayne N. Krautkramer

ANOTHER TRADING TOOL BITES THE DUST, COMPLIMENTS OF THE LONG ONLY COMMODITY FUNDS!

Yes, the 10,000 lb. gorilla counts coup again. The Commitment Of Traders Report is history, as far as its accuracy is concerned. How has this happened, a trader might ask?

"Let’s go to the Videotape", Warner Wolf would have said!
The history of the Commitments of Traders (COT) report

"The first Commitments of Traders (COT) report was published for 13 agricultural commodities as of June 30, 1962. At the time, this report was proclaimed as "another step forward in the policy of providing the public with current and basic data on futures market operations." Those original reports were compiled on an end-of-month basis and were published on the 11th or 12th calendar day of the following month."

The purpose of the COT was to differentiate between Commercial and Non-Conmmercial Traders
"Commercial and Non-commercial Traders – When an individual reportable trader is identified to the Commission, the trader is classified either as "commercial" or "non-commercial." All of a trader’s reported futures positions in a commodity are classified as commercial if the trader uses futures contracts in that particular commodity for hedging as defined in the Commission’s regulations (1.3(z)). A trading entity generally gets classified as a "commercial" by filing a statement with the Commission (on CFTC Form 40) that it is commercially "…engaged in business activities hedged by the use of the futures or option markets." In order to ensure that traders are classified with accuracy and consistency, the Commission staff may exercise judgment in re-classifying a trader if it has additional information about the trader’s use of the markets.

A trader may be classified as a commercial in some commodities and as a non-commercial in other commodities. A single trading entity cannot be classified as both a commercial and non-commercial in the same commodity. Nonetheless, a multi-functional organization that has more than one trading entity may have each trading entity classified separately in a commodity. For example, a financial organization trading in financial futures may have a banking entity whose positions are classified as commercial and have a separate money-management entity whose positions are classified as non-commercial. "

The COT gradually became known as a tool that commodity traders checked in an attempt to see the "thinking" of the large speculators, and the commercials. For most observers, it was a given that the Commercials, and the Large Speculators, are more knowledgeable about the markets than the "small" speculators. This belief was true in the past!

Commitments of Traders – An Explanation
"The Commitments of Traders charts illustrate the directions in which three different categories of investors believe a given commodity is headed. These three categories (Commercials, Large Speculators and Small Speculators) are based on the following definitions:Commercials (AKA hedgers) are people or companies that deal with actual commodities as part of doing business. They trade in those futures as a hedge against the risks they run in the course of that business. Commercials are exempt from position limits and post smaller margins than speculators.Large Speculators are traders whose trading levels are high enough that they require reporting to the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission). These trading levels vary from one commodity to another, and often from one year to another.
Small Speculators are the traders remaining after the Commercials and Large Speculators have been subtracted from the total open interests."

Adam Hamilton informs us that "The Commodity Futures Trading Commission releases its Commitments of Traders report once a week, each Friday. It summarizes changes in futures positions in all major commodities by all major players. While tremendously useful, the CoT is so complex that an air of mysticism has sprung up around it."

"Since the raw CoT data is so specialized, not many investors or analysts bother getting into it. Those who do tend to be revered, kind of like high priests privy to some arcane knowledge. And just like with high priests’ decrees in religion, often the CoT data interpretations by gurus usually go unquestioned or uninvestigated by the faithful. In some cases this blind faith in others’ CoT interpretations can lead to problems", says Adam Hamilton.

The New Reality for the COT report Users
According to the folks at http://www.softwarenorth.com, something has changed in the performance of the Large Speculators.

"Though there are no hard and fast rules about the success of each of these divisions, it is generally assumed that the Commercials are the most successful. The large speculators used to be successful as well but in recent years have done poorly as a group. The small investors are often looked at as the example of what not to do in futures trading. "

Naturally you ask, do you have other evidence, or support for your claims that the COT is now impaired as a trading tool? I’m so glad that you asked for more!
John Fenton, the CFTC deputy director of market surveillance acknowledged the issue in a recent interview given to Daniel P. Collins of Futures (September, 2005).

In the article, Dr. Strangefund: or how I stopped worrying and learned to love the long-only commodity fund, Daniel P. Collins discloses his conversation with the CFTC. John Fenton of the CFTC told Daniel P. Collins, "When a swap dealer comes into the futures market and they are hedging price risk from OTC transactions, they are categorized as commercials"
"What we are evaluating is whether the data we are getting and the way we are getting it would allow us to break it out any other way," Fenton says.
William Plummer of Rangewise, Inc. said "It shows up in the reporting as commercial activity when in reality it’s speculative activity . The actual CFTC reporting in the commercial category is being distorted because some large percentage of that is really speculative trading, and not reflective of commercial activity"

Floyd Upperman, a CTA and an advocate of COT reports, says "There has always been some crosscontamination in the COT reports, between hedgers and speculators." "Although still valuable, COT reports now may need more of a trained eye to read", Upperman notes.

SUMMARY
After reviewing the evidence, and the testimony of some of the experts on the use of the COT report, one must conclude that something major is changing in the raw data that the CFTC uses to compile the COT report.
A lot of speculative activity is now being misclassified as commercial activity.
The real question is what does this mean to users of the COT report?
The deputy director of market surveillance for the CFTC has confirmed that there is a problem with the data, and the classification process. The CFTC itself admits that there is a problem, so we can dismiss any counter argument that there is no problem with the COT report.

William Plummer of Rangewise, Inc. has informed us of the extent of the misclassification problem in the COT report.

Adam Hamilton has informed us that COT interpretation was always very difficult due to the massive amount of raw data that must be interpreted.
Floyd Upperman has told us that interpreting the COT reports may now require more of a trained eye!

Remember that the original purpose of the COT reports was to monitor the actions of the real professionals (Commercials)
If the Large Speculators actions are being classified as Commercials, what is the point of reading the report?

We have already been informed by Software North that the Large Speculators have done poorly as a group in recent years. Yeah, that’s who we want to emulate!

It appears that a somewhat subjective tool has just become even more subjective! What’s the bad news?

It’s time to invoke the tried and true rule of Caveat Emptor. As there is no warranty that comes with the use of the COT reports, I would suggest that the trader be very cautious when using the current COT reports.

One might ask what the Commercials, and the professional speculators really use, as they were obviously successful prior to the creation of the COT report in 1962!

The mother lode must lie elsewhere!

Why did you believe that the COT reports were the secret of investing in the first place? It’s a reasonable assumption that "they" told you that big boys used the COT as a decision making tool.

Would "they" lie to you? Let’s look at the odds!
You ask, Who is the one lying to us? "That would be telling!"

"The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society." Edward Bernays
"In addition to his uncle Sigmund Freud, Bernays also used the theories of Ivan_Pavlov."

Wayne N. Krautkramer Onlypill@cox.net http://onlypill.tripod.com/toolsofthetrade

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