Launching Hummingbirds By The BigFisherman

July 29, 2007


Buy gold and go to the beach: An investment strategy after my heart. So the positive movement in the precious metals markets over the past few weeks was welcome action as the family vacationed at our lake cabin. We were all enchanted by the tiny tenants of a hummingbird nest anchored to a small hemlock in our side yard. Growing vigorously to an overflowing size they were aggressively testing their wings and nearly ready to fly. As we were peeking over the lichen lined lip of the nest one morning my son commented that he kept thinking there was something at the edge of his vision, but that when he looked there was nothing. I had noticed the same thing, thinking I was over tired. Soon after my father, my son and I all sensed a storm coming, but nothing came of it. When parents departed my son and I both caught an early afternoon nap. I quickly dropped of and dreamt of a large bear charging about the neighborhood scaring folks but not hurting anyone. It was a strange dream in that is was fits and starts and flashes like a collage. Startled awake, I stumbled out of the bedroom pondering the obvious metaphor of the bear and financial matters but soon noticed that my wife was sitting quietly gazing out over the water. The feel of the approaching storm was ominous. The power had been out for a while.



Still groggy, I watched the approaching wind from the porch. Storm watching is a sport up here, and they are spectacular. But the wall of spray was something new. Several hundred feet high, it was moving fast. Suddenly life was fits and starts and flashes. Giant water toys were doing the Wizard of Oz. In an instant, a waterspout whip-lashed, snapped-off and carried a 150 foot tall white pine onto the roof. Large branches punctured the roof deck over my son’s room, but the tree bounced back shattering in two and inundating the side yard in lethal debris.



Immediately we all gathered under the post and beam structure in the center of the cabin. The portico windows frame dozens of giant evergreens. We watched the wind bend two foot diameter trees to impossible angles. Several trees of over a hundred years snapped and slammed into the ground. And then a few of the patriarchs gave way with horrendous tearing and crashing. Then the bear was gone, a mere gale in its wake. Stepping outside was surreal. Anyone in the side yard with the hummingbirds would have been killed. Impaled, a baby squirrel was screaming. The hummingbird’s tree was broken and stripped, the nest empty but intact on the one remaining branch. There was no sign of the nestlings. The mother kept checking the nest. By God’s grace, our nestling was safe.



For a hundred yards or so in either direction trees fallen in clusters showed where winds of incredible force touched the ground. Chainsaws soon echoed. As we finished cutting our way out and things settled down the baby hummingbirds returned. It was hard to imagine how they might have survived. I have this image of their small hemlock being bent to the ground, tearing loose and springing back. I looked for feathers. Apparently they were none the worse after having been launched into their first flight by what in their universe was apocalyptic. Smiling, I remembered that my wife had named the cabin “Hummingbird House” the year before. My mind began swimming with tired metaphors and parochial insights but what has remained is a strange sense of comfort in the face of growing financial turbulence.



We do appear to have had a significant breakout in the precious metals. Attending a family wedding in Kauai and bumming about the Islands during this period further supports my beach theory. Of course the break out was hammered upon our return. Ignoring the storm for the moment, I find the mere fact that the initial break out took place against the seasonals intriguing, and this has fulfilled my intermediate expectations. The yen carry unwind has become momentarily vicious, and deflationary implosions in kinky finance will likely continue. How long they will overshadow inflationary pressures in stuff is unknowable, given the opacity of Wall Street’s black box fantasies. Well, at least it took a global liquidity event to ding the precious metals complex this time. And it was done so only with paper selling. Notice that the less liquid shares are taking less damage? It seems the shares I want are actually moving up. In particular, my pink sheets favorites have seen a bit more life and some nice pops. So after the past couple of days, baby hummingbirds keep coming to mind.



Rodney C. Cook, Ph.D.


Copyright c 2007. Rodney C Cook. All rights reserved.

Dr. Cook manages Bull Trout Capital, a boutique investment company specializing in precious metals and strategic materials. For the past four years he has authored the private newsletter the FishWrapper on Austrian and long cycle investment strategies where he has demonstrated well over a 65% annualized return on his personal investments in the public share markets. Subscription inquiries may be sent to big_fisherman@earthlink.net.

I’ve been thinking about weekends By Fred Cederholm

Column for on/after July 22^nd,2007

I’ve been thinking about weekends. Actually I’ve been thinking about Creston, the Opera House, communities, food/bingo, vintage baseball, and ice cream socials. The events of the past week continued an escalation of global hostilities, a failed congressional attempt to bring our troops home, a yet further erosion of the US dollar’s valuations, $ 3 + gas / $4 + milk, more product recall/ toxic alerts, and volatile equity markets. The news pretty much sucked, I was looking forward to the weekend – I needed a break.

You see we need our weekends to catch up on things we put off, to share good times, to renew relationships, and to recharge ourselves for the coming week. While busier than usual, this past weekend was pretty typical. The Congressman Thomas “Tip” O’Neill once said, “all politics is local.” That may well be true, but I am convinced that “the real humanity and what is good (and great) about this nation is local as well.” Despite all the negatives thrown at US/us statewide, nationally, and internationally, the positive bonds of friendship, community, and working together will ultimately prevail in uplifting us.

Creston is a very special community. Whether a family spends a few years or a lifetime here, they soon realize what a difference people can (and do) make here. Community action and participation in local projects have accomplished so much for this small mid-western town of roughly 500 people. A majority of the residents have been here for generations – their ancestors coming to Creston from the countries in Scandinavia and Northern Europe in the late 1800’s. As new blood has arrived from elsewhere, the “newbies” realized that to truly assimilate into our community, they need to share their culture/ heritage and become involved in local projects and activities – that has been the key to what has made America so truly great and unique. “E. Pluribus Unum” is more than catch phrase, or a motto.

The restoration of the Italianate Creston Opera House has been an ongoing project for sometime now. In 1900 there over 800 of these across Illinois; now roughly 20 survive. These served to host local and traveling programs and recitals, they served as a venue for community meetings and speakers, and they epitomized a source of community pride and interaction. After three years of demolition and major structural work, the building is “staging a comeback” as the re-building commences in earnest. Last week, the building committee met to detail and to prioritize the punch list for completion of the lowest level. Full payment for the $42,000+ steelwork was made as well. Despite all the volunteered labor, the costs have been staggering. We’ve raised all the money ourselves thru sundry projects and fund raisers.

Saturday, we staged an authentic Mexican dinner at Booster Park. Maria, her sister Lily, and their families proposed the idea and prepared all the food. While they’ve only been part of our Creston community for a couple years now, they wanted to get involved and actively help with fundraising for local projects. This event was incredible and absolutely delicious! It was the first time we had staged such an event and we served well over 100 entrees – featuring tacos, enchiladas, burritos, beans and rice. During part of the event, people played bingo for donated veggies, and cash prizes. We did very well ($) and everyone had a great time! At the conclusion, all pitched in to return our Booster Park to normal.

Meanwhile another volunteer contingent – the Creston Regulators vintage baseball team - was away doing their part up in Rockford, Illinois to help raise money for the Rockford Peaches and the All-American Girls Professional Baseball League re-union fund. The “Peaches” of the 1950’s were the basis for the movie, “A League of their Own.” The Regulators played the Midway Marauders of Rockford in 19^th Century uniforms according to 1858’s rules in the new Road Ranger Stadium. Admission was $1, and the fans, - known as “cranks and crankettes” – could pull on a vintage jersey/tunic and play an inning in return for a special donation. The Creston Regulators won 8 to 3 – HUZZAH!! Over $ 600 was raised for the “Peaches” re-union to be held October 24-27^th. Pip… pip… for the retro boys of summer.

The events past weekend culminated for me Sunday evening with an old fashioned ice cream social at my home congregation St. Johns in Creston. This was a time of community fellowship over sandwiches, pies, cookies, and ice cream. The ice cream social was followed by a program of musical offerings by various locals. It was truly a Norman Rockwell’s America event. The lyrics from one of the closing songs - made popular by the late Louis Armstrong (George Weiss / Bob Thiele) - summed up this past weekend so well: “I see trees of green, red roses too I see them bloom for me and you And I think to myself, (locally) what a wonderful world…” I actually felt a sense of inner peace and a renewed hope for America. I’m Fred Cederholm and I’ve been thinking. You should be thinking, too.

Copyright 2007 Questions, Inc. All rights reserved.

asklet@rochelle.net

Mass franchise democracy: the greatest manifestation of the communist ideal By Dissipate

Has anyone ever considered the fact that western democracies have the largest welfare states and wealthiest governments out of all the nations today and from history?

If you think about it, mass franchise democracy is about as good as it can ever going to get for socialism. If a state allows some form of capitalism to exist it gets the benefits of division of labor, competitive pricing and many other benefits of capitalism. So the idea is to use capitalism as a sort of beast of burden. You allow it to exist, but watch over it closely and simply tax the maximum amount possible out of it.

In order to keep the whole scam going you allow everyone (including the productive members of society) to vote. This placates the taxpayers and gives them a false sense of security that they have a say in government. You also allow them to lobby to get special interest legislation passed for their businesses and professions.

However, little do these taxpayers know that they are severely outnumbered by the non-tax payers, whose marginal cost for an additional government program or additional revenue for existing programs is almost 0. For those who want to reduce the 'cost' of government, the political battle is uphill and nearly impossible.

"From each according to his ability, to each according to his need" can not be realized under communism since some kind of free market is necessary for there to be a price system and division of labor. Division of labor in a market is a necessary pre-condition for the expression of people's ability. The division of labor of communism on the other hand is arbitrary and insane.

The communist ideal is best realized in a mass franchise democracy in which a limited form of capitalism is allowed to exist which acts as an engine of prosperity for government expropriators. Any socialist who is clever enough will have figured this out and will have quickly abandoned any hope of communism being able to sustain a welfare state for any period of time.

So how do you convince the productive members of society that they are living in a socialist's dream world?

Live Earth is not the way! By Joost van Steenis

Amsterdam, July 25 2007

Dear reader, this is the 89^th Letter of an Autonomous Thinker

Superficially Al Gore activated hundreds of thousands people for Live Earth.

But was Al Gore, who uses more energy than a single Chinese village, also saving the earth when he was vice-president?

Of course not and he still does not want to save the earth.

Only one week after Live Earth, Gore gave his guests Chilean sea bass (the Patagonian toothfish), one of the world's most threatened fish species.

High-placed members of the American establishment are never green.

The American elite (including Al Gore) enriches itself shamelessly and it perceives that some masspeople do not agree with the way the world is organised. It cannot be justified that a few people are very rich, a few more have a decent life and the majority is living on the edge of existence. And a billion or more have to live on next to nothing.

The elite wants to maintain its advantageous position. Opposition against its privileges and its surplus of power should be minimised.

Therefore Al Gore brings a plausible idea forward that diverts masspeople from more important subjects as the distribution of wealth, the creation of one world in which all people have the same status or the disappearance of powerful groups that cause much of the world's misery.

Be aware when people with private jets, houses like castles and an excessive spending drift suddenly start to propagate a Green Earth.

These well-to-do people urge masspeople to buy energy-consuming products, sabotage production of low-energy cars or wage wars in Iraq that costs a lot of energy (and the lives of many masspeople).

Elitepeople only use their power to prevent that masspeople create a better world.

The energy and CO2 problems are caused by the elitist system by which we are ruled. The elite gets much of their money by selling masspeople products that have to be renewed and replaced. Their love of money, the idea that money rules the world, is in contradiction to the idea of a Live Earth. The concentration of power in the hands of a small elite is the basic reason why our earth is dying.

The Dying Earth is the direct consequence of wrong power relations.

People who possess most power should stand central in any activity of masspeople. Only when power relations change, Live Earth can exist.

The greatest benefactors of a Dying Earth are elitepeople like Al Gore..

You should fight for different power relations. Then green energy can become a focus-point in the decision-making process. But the elite refuses to turn green. It produces still more energy for still more money in their pockets. Do you think that Gore wants to change that with the help of music? Don't make me laugh.

Al Gore should not be trusted, he is one of the elitepersons that rule the world. All his activities are guided by the golden elitist rule that its Power, Privileges and Prosperity must be protected and expanded regardless what happens to masspeople or to the Earth.

Concentrate on power relations and on people who possess a surplus of power because Live Earth will remain an illusion when power relations do not change.

Yours truly, Joost van Steenis

http://members.chello.nl/jsteenis

Ways to increase masspower

Where do you GET that? Original thinking By Hoarder

Is it just me or what? When discussing issues with others and I tell them the reasons I have reached certain conclusions they sometimes respond with "Where do you get that?".

Our conclusions are what we reach after deliberating, evaluating or analyzing information, not something we "get" from a source. Information is not conclusions, just material to fit the jigsaw puzzle.

There are two kinds of people, those who arrive at opinions and conclusions on their own and those who rely on the thinking of others and merely select which ideas of others they will adopt as their own.

When someone says " Where do you get that?" they are admitting that "getting" conclusions from others is as close as they ever get to thinking. At least that's my take on it.

If they responded "How do you arrive at that?" it might indicate they arrive at information on their own, as arriving is what happens after a journey. Listening to the talking heads on the boob tube and swallowing a story that does not fit together is not a truth-seeking journey.

We're living in a world of lies. I don't claim to have all the answers or that I'm the final word on anything. Our conclusions have to be constantly re-evaluated. That said, conclusions are tentative conclusions only and subject to re- asessment whenever new evidence, information or reasoning are presented.

Since most of us have concluded that government and media have willfully decieved us, the next logical step is to realize that much of what we believe needs to be re-evaluated. It would not make sense to assume that everything we think we know....everything which we have learned from known liars....is probably true.

The masses seem to think of mass media as the "fact gods" whose information is automatically accepted as fact without much proof or deliberation, yet any refutation of mass media stories is subject to every standard of proof.

Certainty is something to be measured in degrees. Very few realities can be ascertained with absolute certainty. Instead of dismissing that which is not absolutely certain we can do something investors do....figure out what is probable.

http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=155916

I’ve been thinking about truth/ illusion By Fred Cederholm

Column for on/after July 15th, 2007

I’ve been thinking about truth/ illusion. Actually I’ve been thinking about what is real, the stock markets, the news, housing, the dollar, Iraq, and Edward Albee’s Martha. “Reality” does not seem to be based in truth, but rather it seems to be based in individual (and collective) perceptions. While truth should be a philosophical constant, perceptions are transitory and tend to change over time as new information surfaces. The old adage “time will tell” truly applies.

You see as I surfed the web last week, following the leading news stories/ developments that are shaping our world; I was totally befuddled by what was happening in the context of my own perceptions of what is reality, what is the truth - in essence… what I see happening versus what “should” be the case based upon my understanding, my studies, and my analysis. Concerns covered the gamut of topics – investments, finance, economics, and politics.

The stock market benchmark averages stumbled over themselves setting new record highs – one after another. But… typical news stories headlined

Foreclosures Dip, But That Won't Last , Retailers Struggle with Sluggish June , Trade Gap Up on Higher Oil , Trade Deficit Widened as Expected in May , Forecast: Housing Slump Not Going Away Soon , Bernanke Says Inflation Expectations Still Remain `Imperfectly Anchored' , U.S. Housing Sales Seen Tumbling to Six-Year Low on Higher Rates, Defaults , Refinery woes push up Midwest gas prices , Oil surges to new 11-month high above $77 , Dow Soars to Record Highs , Mortgage Demand Climbs in Spite of Rising Interest Rates , Buying American? It's not in the bag , Consumer Borrowing Jumps in May.

Once again many of the explanations given by mainstream pundits were a ludicrous grasping at straws and bore no real cause to effect relationship. While Wal-Mart may shown a recent 2% increase in comparable (same store) sales over a year ago, most retailers saw their sales decline. Consumer confidence was anything but rosy. If you factor-in only a 3% inflation rate over the 12 month period even the super-seller behemoth Walmart’s sales were down. Housing stagnation was a central theme as rating agencies downgraded scores of the mortgage backed securities, CDO’s, and Real Estate Investment Trust vehicles. The problem here is “knowing” what adjustment to book value should be. Since any house is only worth what someone will pay for it, how do you mark-it-to-market when few are buying what homes are being offered. Each day more come onto the market – be they offered by owners or the lenders. The US Dollar continued its slide South in its relative valuation to other world currencies. This is theoretically confusing as other fiat currencies are being “printed” at a higher % rate than the Buck. But since there are already Mega TRILLIONS of dollars out there, the qualified, or relative %, increases of other currencies are by default (no pun intended) bigger. The dollar was further shaken last week when Iran (who provides a significant share of Japan’s energy imports) requested that the Japanese henceforth pay for their purchases in Yen - not in US Dollars. Iraq made the news, but not for what was actually happening with the troops in the Middle East. The headlines focused on the growing list of senior Republican Congressmen and Senators who were “defecting” to the growing “its time to cut our losses, and set a timetable to get out” camp on Capitol Hill. An interim report on progress since the SURGE began cited minimal progress in only 8 of the 18 criteria areas. (And… 478 more US troops were killed.) Bush called a special press conference to solidify support for his “no change in policy” until General Petraeus reports on September 15. It didn’t work as Senator Warner and Senator Lugar “defected” the next day. Even Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Malaki said it’s time for US/us to get out

Edward Albee’s play “Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?” deals with four individuals who try to come to grips with what is real in their world(s). Each one deceives themselves in a comfortable/ lapsed-into fantasyland. The Martha character summed things up by finally confronting her husband at the turning point in the play with the words: “Truth or illusion, George (you should insert/substitute “America” here), doesn’t it make any difference to you at all?” I’m Fred Cederholm and I’ve been thinking. You should be thinking, too.

Copyright 2007 Questions, Inc. All rights reserved.

John Perkins's new book

Hi,

I want to let you know that you can now purchase my new book The Secret History of the American Empire through your local bookstore or favorite on-line vendor. I will deeply appreciate you taking the time to pre-order an advance copy or copies. Your purchase(s) will enable this book to surpass Confessions of and Economic Hit Man which spent 59 weeks on the New York Times bestseller list and is published in over 25 languages. Getting the word out will help create a sustainable, stable, and peaceful world for future generations everywhere. More information is below, if you are inclined to read on.

If not, please do order a copy for you and your best friends now.

Also, please feel free to forward this email to your lists.

I'd love to see you at one of my up-coming events (listed at www.johnperkins.org)

Many thanks for your support. My best wishes,

John

John Perkins
New York Times bestselling author of Confessions of an Economic Hit Man
and The Secret History of the American Empire (June 5, 2007)
http://www.johnperkins.org/
http://www.dreamchange.org/

The Secret History of the American Empire

by New York Times bestselling author

John Perkins

"A sweeping, bold assault on the tyranny of corporate globalization, full of drama and adventure, with devastating stories of greed run wild. But Perkins is undaunted, and offers imaginative ideas for a different world."

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showing the power of the growing movement toward a caring economics

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and The Real Wealth of Nations.

The Secret History of the American Empire will be in bookstores on June 5, 2007.

Author John Perkins says:

"I wrote Secret History as a follow-up to Confessions because of things I heard during the last 2 ½ years, as I traveled around the U.S. and Latin America, speaking in public, meeting with presidents, former presidents, and other government officials, and talking with an array of people in places like Bolivia, Nicaragua, and Ecuador. Secret History zeroes in on hot spots around the world, and drawing on interviews with Hit Men, Jackals, reporters, government officials, and activists, examines the current geopolitical crisis. It's clear that the world we've created is dangerous and no longer sustainable. How did we get here? Who's responsible? What good have we done and at what cost? And what can we do to change things for the next generations? The answers to these questions - especially the last one - are the soul of Secret History."

Secret History exposes events that have defined our world, including:

· The current Latin American Revolution and its lessons for democracy

· How the "Defeats" in Vietnam and Iraq benefited big business

· The role of Israel as Fortress America in the Middle East

· Tragic repercussions of the IMF's "Asian Economic Collapse"

· US blunders in Tibet, Congo, Lebanon, and Venezuela

· Jackal (CIA operatives) forays to assassinate democratic presidents

And then it offers a realistic plan for turning things around.

Please click on to your preferred book vendor and order Secret History now.

Please forward this message to your email lists.

Thank you for your support.

I’ve been thinking about trade By Fred Cederholm

Column for on/after July 8th, 2007

I’ve been thinking about trade. Actually I’ve been thinking about our April consumption, our deficits, oil/ petroleum consumption, our debt holders, and fast tracking. What happened in April 2007 may seem like ancient history in a global economy which turns on a dime and where Billions of “dollar” denominated transactions are consummated at the click of the enter key. There is a time lag between when these transactions occur, and when they are compiled for release to the general public by the Federal agencies which track them. But… does anybody care what transpired economically - or worse… what seems looming on the horizon for us?

You see it is a sorry situation when there is more coverage and commentary about these data in the international media than in our own domestic press. Is this because our addiction to consumption of foreign goods, services, and energy (that is “deficit financed” by these same foreign $ugar daddies) is bleeding this country dry or is just too depressing for our nationals to contemplate? Is it that Uncle $ugar’s biased and one-sided “free trade” working against US/us in the global marketplace is simply beyond the grasp of American public? I understand why the foreign media covers such trends for their readers on a regular basis – they sell Us/us their stuff, and we sell them our public debt and debt instruments! They WANT to know where they stand - so why is it that our people, our business moguls, and our elected officials don’t seem to care?

Our eight largest trade deficits for the month of April 2007 (and 2007 Year to Date) are as follows: China $19.374 Billion ($76.324 Billion YTD), Japan $7.365 Billion ($27.974 Billion YTD), Canada $5.808 Billion, ($23.237 Billion YTD), Mexico $5.215 Billion ($21.589 Billion YTD), Germany $3.841 Billion ($14.087 Billion YTD), Venezuela $2.311 Billion ($7.566 Billion YTD), Ireland $2.052 Billion ($7.243 Billion YTD), and Saudi Arabia $1.985 Billion ($6.312 Billion YTD). Considering that our hands-down overall biggest dollar denominated imports are for crude oil and petroleum distillates, just WHAT are we hocking our souls for in what we are getting from China, Japan, Germany, and Ireland? By the way as an aside… our biggest trade surpluses are with the Netherlands with an April surplus of $1.427 Billion and a YTD surplus of $6.475 Billion. Suddenly… I find myself loving the Dutch!

We continue to depend on foreign suppliers for more than two-thirds of our current level of energy consumption - with an ever narrowing mix of the suppliers. The top eight sources of Uncle $ugar’s crude oil imports for April 2007 were: Canada (1.909 Million barrels per DAY--MBPD), Mexico (1.460 MBPD), Saudi Arabia (1.458 MBPD), Venezuela (1.182 MBPD), Nigeria (0.891 MBPD), Iraq (0.562 MBPD), Algeria (0.530 MBPD), and Angola (0.514 MBPD). Uncle $ugar’s top eight sources of total petroleum imports for April 2007 were: Canada (2.479 MILLION barrels per DAY--MBPD), Mexico (1.572 MBPD), Saudi Arabia (1.488 MBPD), Venezuela (1.412 MBPD), Nigeria (0.948 MBPD), Algeria (0.798 MBPD), Iraq (0.562 MBPD) and Russia (0.550 MBPD. The April import value of crude oil ($17.5 billion) was the highest since September 2006 ($19.7 billion) and the April import average price per barrel of crude oil ($57.28) was the highest since September 2006 ($62.40). Crude in July is now over $72.

Foreign holdings of US Treasury Securities have more than doubled under the Bush Administration - from $1.040 Trillion in January 2001 to $2.224 Trillion in April 2007. At the end of April 2007 China held $414.0 Billion (up 573%), Japan held $614.8 Billion (up 97%), the United Kingdom held $134.2 Billion (up 181%), the oil exporters held $112.2 Billion (up 131%) and the remaining share of the rest held by others outside US/us jumped 65%. I find this turn of financial fortune appalling. The ongoing relative value decline of the dollar isn’t helping either.

Last week the prerogative of “fast tracking” trade deals - whereby Congress can only vote up-or-down a trade agreement submitted by the President – lapsed; Congress refused to renew the tradition of deferring all such details to the White House. Maybe it’s time for the Legislative Branch to play hard ball on trade negotiations, because it sure seems the Executive Branch has dropped the ball. I’m Fred Cederholm and I’ve been thinking. You should be thinking, too.

Copyright 2007 Questions, Inc. All rights reserved.

To “audit” this column, and to learn more about the subjects discussed, please check out:

April 2007 Energy Import Highlights: Released on June 22, 2007
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html

U.S. Crude Oil Field Production (Thousand Barrels) http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mcrfpus1m.htm

Top Ten Countries with which the U.S. Trades http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/top/dst/2007/04/balance.html

Top Ten Countries with which the U.S. has a Trade Deficit http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/top/dst/2007/04/deficit.html

Top Ten Countries with which the U.S. has a Trade Surplus http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/top/dst/2007/04/surplus.html

Foreign Held Debt has Ballooned since 2001 (a Congressional Analysis)
http://www.house.gov/budget_democrats/hearings/2007/0626FHD_chart_packet.pdf

So should laws parallel religious doctrine or tenets? By James Jaeger

Ontology to Science Cycle

So should laws parallel religious doctrine or tenets?

No, because many of them are not ethical or moral

Or some of them may be outdated.

But remember this: the below scale makes sense if you look at it from the POV that each item down the rung is a further distillation of the item above.

ONTOLOGY

EPISTEMOLOGY

PHILOSOPHY

RELIGION

POLITICS

LAW

SCIENCE

Ontology is the study of being. Epistemology is the study of knowing how to know about what is (being). Philosophy is the grouping of areas of knowledge (knowing) into workable and semi-workable doctrines. Religion is the study of wisdom or applied philosophy. Politics is the study and application of religion to social interactions. Law is the codification of specific social interactions. Science is the codification of specific physical interactions in an attempt to understand the ontology of the universe.

James Jaeger

Mud Season By The BigFisherman

June 24, 2007

The pundit’s disquieting forecasts ring hollow somehow. Having been intuitively obvious for so long, the unfolding of current events warrants action not alarm. But there are a growing number of mavens that understand the applicability of Austrian economic theory in making sense of what has here-to-fore been a neo-Keynesian conundrum. Being right has led to life changing profits for those who have been properly positioned. But my satisfaction is tempered by distress over the masses that do not see the implications: those that mill about unwilling to accept the underlying realities. Realities that were only obscene prophesy a few short years ago. Realities born of fear that may well become nightmares for the unprepared.

It is Kondratieff spring in Japan. But new growth is only beginning, and mud is everywhere. The reversal of the decades long yen carry trade signals a change in the economic landscape of the most fundamental and profound nature. Most will concentrate on the formidable destruction as volatility in financial markets boils off excess liquidity. More than hedge funds will collapse. But the profits will be found in the less recognized underlying process of creation. New technologies, industries and organizational systems will supplant the dysfunctional hierarchical secular institutions. And it is time for an antiquated monetary system to step aside.

Increasingly, monetary authorities are abandoning fiat. Those aligning against dollar hegemony are achieving a consensus sufficient to call the empires debt. A defacto gold standard will likely result, for a time at least. To date, the decrease in the rate of selling by the central banks has been the major factor in the primary bull. As net purchases become positive, either by central banks or by feudal lords that assume this role, prices as measured in debt based currencies will become incomprehensible. Following my credo of personal central banking is now paramount. Maintain your own reserve, in a fraction appropriate to your obligations. After all, even the Council for Foreign Relations is calling for an end to national currencies. I suppose it has become obvious enough. Some tipping points must be near as the shepherds have necessarily become more Austrian to maintain credibility as events unfold. Pay particular attention to Greenspan. While he has formally relinquished the imperial jawbone his uttering’s have become increasingly Randian. His critics will find him to be a conundrum unto himself as totalitarian ideologies of all persuasions are supplanted.

There have been and increasing number of disquieting market phenomena to keep us entertained of late. The acute attention paid to the markets at points of distress offer a unique opportunity. A sea of opinions are offered on causes, but only those who made proper forecasts of these events should be sought for council at this point. Our mavens are even getting more air time, and they are sporting well-deserved smirks of shadenfreude. For many speculating in real estate, their houses have become boxcars to financial genocide. As the housing backed dollar comes into play the debt slaves will clamor for salvation, but would not understand their true predicament if they were packaged up and shipped out as organ donors. While financial survivors who measure their net worth in government scrip will see that number rise, only those with a cogent strategy for negotiating the evolving end of fiat currencies will improve their lot in life.

Present circumstances warrant a call to action. There have been several technical breakouts in the precious metals in the past year. As we have expected, all of them have been hammered, keeping gold and silver in technical consolidation since last years highs. A consensus of the quantitative models at this point tells us that we are still in a long term parabolic market, and that the current consolidation is nearing completion. Near term technical indications for precious metals have also turned up. Interestingly, after regaining much ground over the past year and months the visceral measurable fear has not returned along with the prices. And the short positions and strategies are becoming much less vicious. The situation has been at almost at a complacent extreme until the past few days as lamestream shares have moved nicely forward. But the yen carry trade is due to continue unwinding, putting a drag on the most recent heady increases in global liquidity. A modest reversal of the decline in fear might be the beginning of a move to new highs in precious metals. A significant breakout here would be counter to the seasonals, so the lines of probability favor modest improvement increasing significantly into the fall. But one must be prepared to take advantage of a discontinuity to the upside well before then.

Rodney C. Cook, Ph.D.

Copyright c 2007. Rodney C Cook. All rights reserved.

Dr. Cook manages Bull Trout Capital, a boutique investment company specializing in precious metals and strategic materials. For the past four years he has authored the private newsletter the FishWrapper on Austrian and long cycle investment strategies where he has demonstrated well over a 65% annualized return on his personal investments in the public share markets. Subscription inquiries may be sent to big_fisherman@earthlink.net.

So-Called Spoilers by James Jaeger

06 July 2007

TYPICAL STATEMENT FROM A CONCERNED CITIZEN:

"I wish there were time for voters to be re-educated because I really like Ron Paul however the reality is that Dr. Paul has zero chance. I have wasted votes in the past. The fact is that Nader cost this nation a great deal, including the lives of many young soldiers. Ross Perot might have cost Bush Sr. an election. Therefore I will choose not to vote for a "spoiler" again only because I don't want to see the worst candidate win."

The above statement could have come from you or 50 million other people: whether or not to vote for the better candidate, even though you believe it's "impossible" for them win. If you feel voting for the better candidate will thus WASTE your vote (because then your vote won't be available for some other candidate who you feel is the lesser of the evils), then you may be inclined to avoid voting for the "spoiler" candidate.

This is a tough decision, especially in today's moral- and ethical-challenged society -- the idea that one should NOT vote for who they feel is the best candidate. This "decision" would have been totally ALIEN in early American society, yet today people discuss it as if it had some kind of valid moral or ethical basis.

It's true, if you vote for "spoilers" things WILL probably be bad in the short-term, but how do you think things got so bad in the first place? They got bad because you as a citizen have shirked your responsibility to do the right thing -- vote for the candidates your conscience dictated regardless of the short-term consequence.

In the future, if you make it your firm policy to vote for the candidates you know in your heart will be best for the country (the so called "spoilers"), things WILL eventually improve -- the "spoilers" WILL get into office and spoil things for the entrenched incumbents. The improvement will come over the long-term because, with every election, the best candidates will GAIN in the percentages and the candidates that are in there simply to maintain the status quo will fade.

The slower, less ethical people in society will eventually notice these gains and, if you spread the methodology advocated in this article, people will eventually realize WHY it's happening. MOST PEOPLE WILL EVENTUALLY ALSO REALIZE THAT IT WAS IMMORAL FOR THEM TO HAVE VOTED FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN WHO THEIR CONSCIENCE DICTATED IN THE FIRST PLACE.

And eventually people will realize that to continuously AVOID voting for the "SPOILERS" will eventually SPOIL the country -- for the calculus of such an irrational voting "strategy" will eventually relegate the country an eternity of steadily worsening conditions. Then, as history shows, there will be a bloody conflict to "correct" the long-standing "political market." If people realize that we didn't get into this condition over night, and they realize that they are part to BLAME, they will be more willing to bite the bullet, a bullet that they deserve. Even though it will be hell in the short-term, at least there WILL be a light at the end of the tunnel.

But there's another positive note for all of those of you who are hesitant about voting your conscience. With the velocity of today's information flows things can change at EXPONENTIAL rates rather than LINEAR rates. This means, if you vote for the candidates that are the best regardless, AND you pass this voting philosophy on to others, the percentage increase the so-called spoilers will get in each subsequent election will increase exponentially. Thus, you will see change far more rapidly than you may expect. BUT you must be willing to invest your courage in your conscience and in the LONG-term -- not just the instant mashed potatoes short-term.

http://www.mecfilms.com/universe

America is Sick; It Needs Dr. Ron Paul by James Jaeger

03 July 2007

A CITIZEN WROTE:
>I think I am out of the box. I am not happy with Bush and many other Republicans. The Dems are worse.

JAMES JAEGER WROTE:
Well you seem to be PART out of the box in that you don't seem to have blind loyalty to just the Republicans (and I do note you were enthusiastic about independent Ross Perot once, as was I). But you are still talking about politics in TERMS of the "Republicans" and the "Dems." As long as you even USE those terms you are in a box confined by the actions of the Democrats and the Republicans, as if the actions of the Dems and the GOP constitute ALL the factors relevant to the situation we find ourselves in on a national and international level. What CAUSES a problem, and what CONTINUES a problem, are often the factors that are NOT being discussed and hence confronted. The Fed, and fiat money, are examples. The fact that we have probably hit global PEAK oil is another. Factors and issues like these, that are NOT being discussed by either the Dems or the GOP, TEND TO HOLD THE PROBLEM IN PLACE INHIBITING THE ALIGNMENT OF THE FACTORS NECESSARY TO RESOLVE THE SITUATION. Were these issues to be entered into the equation, real solutions would materialize, because all relevant factors would be on the table. The mere fact that solutions haven't been forthcoming in a number of areas (i.e., energy, perpetual war, debt encumbrance, medical attention, social security, education, media and societal violence, immigration, trade deficit, etc.) AREN'T materializing and in fact getting worse in many cases, is PROOF that salient factors are NOT being addressed. You cannot solve a problem in a DATA VACUUM. Thus the Dems and the GOP, which promote or utilize data vacuums, are NOT SOLUTIONS to the problems, they are PART of the problems, if not THE problem. IF you accept this, THEN you are OUT of the box. But again, every time I hear the word Dem or GOP uttered, I KNOW that person is caught up in the silly cockfight between these two distractive terminals. This is, of course, a psychological device that is used, knowingly or unknowingly, by those who promote, influence and use BOTH political parties in order to control the attention units of the public. You are thus being controlled because the essence of your "reasoning" is but the vocabulary DEFINED by the two parties and their operators. In other words, your very thinking is being placed into a narrow spectrum that only allows you to consider problems as framed by these two entities. And the media is the tool that indoctrinates the public with the "solutions" promoted by the Dems and the GOP as if there were no other issues or solutions. Witness how they placed all the lesser known candidates, the "unknown quantities," including Ron Paul, over to the side of the debate line up. Then as in the blatant case involving Wolf Blitzer, the sidelined candidates are asked fewer questions and thus garner less screen time than the others. Excuse me, isn't the MEDIA NEWS supposed to show the public what's NEW? Shouldn't the MEDIA, if it was really "looking out for the folks" be trying to show the public what NEW, what new candidates are there, potential new gems for society? But no, the Wolf Blitzers of the corporate media simply continue to over expose the same OLD SAME OLD. The NEWS is thus mis-named. It should be called the FOX OLD or CNN OLD. Thus, all of the "reasons" we should or should not be in Iraq are merely reflections of which "side" of a highly controlled, highly edited, network "debate" you wish to chose. Neither side is a real solution, because each side is OLD NEWS. Were there to BE a real solution -- NEW NEWS -- war and military expenditures would DECREASE and/or cease. The entities that provide us with "protection" would evolve their own obsolescence; companies heavily invested in the $2 trillion global petroleum infrastructure would wane and all the Mafioso in power at this time would start to become displaced. People like Ron Paul understand this games condition and are not playing it. Most of the money that the military-industrial-congressional establishment relies on is generated by the Federal Reserve System as illegal fiat money. See FIAT EMPIRE at http://www.FiatEmpire.com This game has made certain international entities wealthy enough to easily own the Dems and the GOP in a way that they are similar to POLITICAL FOOTBALL TEAMS. You really think the president of the US has that much power beyond a public relations function? Dream on? You really think the Dems or the GOP actually run much? I don't think as much as people think because they're so dependent on the money-crazed, predatory networks to promote them. See http://www.homevideo.net/FIRM

>Ron Paul believes we should leave Iraq before we stabilize the country.

Stabilize?! The mere fact that we are THERE is what is DEstabilizing Iraq! When Saddam invaded Kuwait, the Saudi Kingdom got paranoid and asked the US to bring its military into Saudi Arabia to protect the oil in the event Saddam ALSO tried to invade Saudi Arabia. Since the general population of Saudi Arabia doesn't profit much from the oil sales, AND they are now over populated AND in debt AND watching the West deplete their only source of wealth, oil -- they are generally VERY antagonistic to both the Saudi Kingdom AND its number one sweetheart trading partner, the US. Understandably, when the Kingdom invited the US military in and they placed their tanks all over Saudi Arabia and religious sites like Mecca and Medina, the Muslim people of Saudi Arabia got irritated. (See SLEEPING WITH THE DEVIL by Robert Baer) A faction of these Muslims, what we in our ignorance label "extremists," spontaneously organized around a wealthy estranged Saudi engineer named Osama bin Laden and flew jets into our buildings on September 11, 2001. They did this because, after decades of protesting the above grievances (i.e., long-term US foreign policy in the ME), they were ignored. So they did what they did on 9/11 and this is what the CIA terms “blowback" – COVERT foreign policies or action that cause OVERT retaliation. This again is blowback. Since the American people, by definition, know nothing about the covert actions and policies, when the blowback happens they have insufficient data to process the event and thus can only resort to non-causative and/or irrational "explanations" -- such as the ones you are suggesting here. Ron Paul tried to point all this out to Rudy Giuliani in the last Republican debate, but Giuliani has been so indoctrinated by the data vacuum, he had no ability to respond in a meaningful way and thus came off as foolish and authoritarian in the eyes of those who understand the blowback phenomenon. All this time Iraq had NOTHING to do with 9/11. Their only "crime" was they had the second largest oil reserves on the planet. (See TWILIGHT IN THE DESERT by Matt Simmons) Realizing that US military's number one source of oil, Saudi Arabia, was in jeopardy, the Bush Administration thus felt it HAD to dream up some pretext to go into Iraq to secure a BACKUP supply of oil. Since invading another country for such a purpose -- when the US is already detested by most of the rest of the world as not only the biggest energy hog, but the biggest global polluter – trying to dominate yet another supply of oil doesn't go over well, especially when many of them are oil-starved as well. Bush thus HAD to dream up some other "reason" to go into Iraq. This is when the Neo-Cons stepped forward with their dusty plan to secure Israel. The Neo-Cons realized they could hit two birds with one stone: A) Give Bush his pretext for invading Iraq and B) better secure Israel by taking out Saddam, payback for when Saddam was throwing Scud missiles at them during the first Gulf War.

Thus, in summary, Iraq WAS reasonably stable BEFORE we placed our military all over Saudi Arabia and then used it to invade Iraq. We may not have liked Saddam, but he WAS our creation, in part, and he DID keep the place under a semblance of control, albeit ruthless control. But he was never the threat the Bush Administration tried to paint him as even Saddam didn't like the so-called "extremist" Muslims. We have thus -- due to special interest-directed foreign policy, foreign policy in conflict with the precepts of the US Constitution -- DEstablized the entire Middle East AND placed the US population under threat of attacks from foreign, extra-national entities. Because of our foolish invasion of Iraq, an invasion that was for oil AND to further the interests of a small politically powerful special interest group funded to no small extent by the AIPAC, we have squandered over $600 billion that could have been placed into the remedy of our domestic energy problems AND moved the world closer to a remedy for Global Warming (renamed "Climate Change" to take the emphasis off the severity of the situation). With the exception of Ron Paul, most of the “leaders” of this country are in nothing less than a condition of liability.

>I believe that if we do that we will create a huge problem. Iran and Syria will go in to fill the vacuum.

So what? Iran is little threat. The gov-infested media would have you believe otherwise. Like Saudi Arabia, Iran's leadership is very unpopular with the people YET the Iranian people generally like the U.S. and many of them emulate our culture. The Iranian people are no threat at all and it’s only a matter of time before their current leadership will be out. And even if the Iranian leadership got a nuke, so what! They would never use it because it would mean Israel would nuke them back out of existence.

>The Muslim extremists are a huge problem that's only going to get worse.

Every religion has its extremists. There are Christian extremists just as there are Jewish and Scientology extremists. But you can't configure a country of 300 million or a world of 6 billion people to accommodate fear of extremists. That's insane. Extremists need to simply be ignored and handled in the same way we handle the mentally ill. Every time you overly react to them and acknowledge their existence, you push more power and "validity" to them and their cause. Hey this should be Black Propaganda 101. Extremist success is thus a CREATION of those in the mainstream. Even still, when one compares the threats and damages caused by the so-called terrorists to the threats and damages of the First and Second World Wars, they are INSIGNIFICANT. The dropping of the World Trade Center towers was only DRAMATIC – not statistically SIGNIFICANT. Bombing the "innocent" men, women and children in Hiroshima and Nagasaki was not only dramatic but significant statistically, so the US is MUCH better at "terrorist" raids than any Al Quada. People of the US, being so conditioned and hypnotized by movies and the negative-spewing media are only impressed by the DRAMATIC not the militarily significant statistics. Over 30 MILLION were killed in WW2. A lousy 3,000 are killed in 9/11? Please. Even if terrorists nuke an entire US city of 1 million, I don’t want to even be BOTHERED hearing about it on TV as it’s STATISTICALLY INSIGNIFICANT. True power doesn’t pay attention to such relatively insignificant things. It was our pompous ego that was hurt on September 11th, not our country. Obviously the US isn’t a true power any longer – we’re a pompous, over-weight, ignorant, bunch of over-sexed, media/movie-indoctrinated, beer-guzzling, bathroom-humor-driven, pharmaceutical-addicted debt-infested pigs that are not only destroying the planet with our excessive corporate commercialism and pollution but arrogantly disregarding the rest of the world’s people at every turn. In short: we have gone from a Republic to an Empire EXACTLY as Benjamin Franklin suspected we would in time when he said: "A republic: IF your can keep it." We would DISGUST the Founding Fathers and Ben Franklin were they still alive today.

Again, all of the acts of terrorism the Fed-fueled government and military-industrial-complex have been assailing us with in order to consolidate their power over us have been NOTHING compared to what happened in WW1 and WW2 – or even Viet Nam. We have lost our perspective and the media is simply pushing the same bogus candidates from the RepubliCratic Party because it wants to generate advertising fees and maintain its cozy relationship with the Fed and the Congress, who doles out radio spectrum and broadcast licenses. And the only way the government can roll over its $8.6 trillion current debt is to burry the interest payments in huge war-system military expenditures.

>Look whets going on in Pakistan today. London. The problem with Chavez and the Iranian Gov.

All media-gov promoted crap to stir up citizens in their box. Climb out of the Box.

>What's going to happen if the extremists take over all the oil producers in the mideast?

The two largest oil fields in the ME, in descending order are: Saudi Arabia and Iraq. We are in both places because the US military is trying to secure ITS oil supply. The US military, with outposts in over 150 countries, CANNOT OPERATE without the ME oil. Period. Once people GET THIS, they will cog that if we CUT BACK the US military, and stop POLICING the world, we would not NEED the oil -- THUS it would not matter who "takes over."

>Where will we get the fuel to fight and survive.

We wouldn't NEED the fuel if we didn't CREATE the need for it. As I said above, all of this is what is NOT being confronted by the Dems and the GOP because BOTH parties are instruments of the same military-industrial-banking complex. (See a documentary, now available in BlockBuster Video stores, called WHY WE FIGHT. It’s about Dwight D. Eisenhower’s caution about the military-industrial complex getting out of hand – as is the case right NOW). Until you get and accept this, you will not be able to make but crippled sense of anything in the ME and you will thus be resigned to watching even more Fox “news” and CNN in a desperate attempt to fill in the data vacuum. The news is a bunch of horse because, for one, the major Federal Reserve-member banks own significant blocks of stock in the major media networks, just as the major oil companies own major blocks of stock in the automobile manufacturing companies. Duh, wouldn’t you?! You think high-level collusion, and interlocking directorates, AREN'T going on?!

>Yes, alternative energy should be aggressively pursued, but that will take years.

It's DESIGNED to take years. This is why the bought-and-paid-for DEM/GOP “congressmen” allocate over $440 billion a year to military operations and less than $1 billion a year to alternative energy development. Please. The military-industrial-complex provides work for all their districts, hundreds of billions. You think they actually WANT alternative energy and a break with the status quo? Of course not. You think the banking community actually WANTS a resolution to wars so their military-related loans evaporate and they lose hundreds of billions of interest revenue every year on the almost $9 trillion national debt, not to mention the $45 trillion in long-term liabilities the US facing and which represent additional loan potentials. Dream on? So everything IS the way it's "supposed" to be -- unless someone like RON PAUL comes along and explicates the game.

>In the mean time we have wells shut down off of California, Deposits off the coast of Florida and in Alaska that the Dems won't let us get.

Back to us and them. Get out of the box. See above.

>The left leaning media does not tell the public everything.

The MEDIA has its OWN agenda and it's NOT the agenda of the People.

>They have their own agenda.

True, and that agenda is to A) push those candidates they think will be able to raise the most money so they have it to spend on their over-priced TV spots and B) make certain they generate no waves that could upset their cozy relationship with the congressional powers that oversee their broadcast licenses. See movie called FIAT EMPIRE.

>They don't mention the good things that are going on in Iraq,

That's because there IS nothing good going on! We INVADED another country on false and selfish pretenses. We have killed over 3,000 of OUR little boys and a hundred thousand, or more, of THEIR little boys. The ONLY way we will "stabilize" anything is to get out and re-write our foreign policy in greater alignment with Constitutional the principals of non-interventionist ideals. This, and only this, will stop the BLOWBACK which apologists of the war-, banking-system laughingly have neoterized as “terrorism."

>they don't mention the proof positive the Iran is backing much of the fighting there.

So what. Who cares what they do in the ME. It's none of our business. It's not our oil. Saudi Arabia has a huge population that's now in serious debt, thanks to the profligate Kingdom and their sweetheart deal with the US. Again, these people don't want the US pigging up all THEIR oil and keeping OUR tanks all over their lands just to protect a Kingdom they generally, hate, a Kingdom the hypocritical US condones even though it engages in the some of the most brutal human rights violations in the world. THIS is why THEY (the Saudi people and their Muslin counterparts) hate us and why THEY flew jets into our buildings killing a few "innocent" Americans -- as if ignorance and irresponsibility make Americans "innocent."

>We leave without stabilizing that country and I hate to think what that will lead to.

When we leave, the country will stabilize and you will find another Saddam back in there. It was a grave mistake to execute Saddam. We should have put him back into Iraq to run the place, with the proviso that, if he did any more human rights violations, we would come after him again.

>We can't appease these people. They will not go away if we leave them alone.

That's what the gov-infested media has brainwashed you to believe. Stop watching so much FOX NEWS and stop reading just news papers. It's mostly propaganda. The so-called terrorists are NOT after us because we're rich and free, they are after us because we're OVER THERE in THEIR lands pigging up THEIR oil and supporting THEIR enemies: Jews in Israel. We stop all of the above, and they have better things to do than go after us. Bombing our buildings was the ONLY WAY they could get our attention because fat dumb Americans do nothing but watch TV -– so they had to create a media event, a show called 9/11 - BOMB THE BUILDINGS. They knew we would take a moment to look up from our screwing and Big Macs to watch THIS survival show on TV.

>They already think that they conquered the Russians in Afghanistan

They?! Too general. There is no "they."

>and they think that God is on their side and they have a Holly Fatwa to destroy the Jews, Christians and non-believers.

All media-instigated horse.

>Ron Paul doesn't get that.

Oh, no he gets it. He gets what the actual solutions are: cause and effect. We covertly do A and there is blowback B. The blowback is being misnomered in order to maintain the cover of our unrealistic and predatory LONG-TERM foreign policy. And the fact that it is a LONG-TERM policy PROVES that it makes NO difference who is in power: Dems or GOP as BOTH of these two parties are nothing less than FRONT groups for the internationalists' agenda.

>He thinks if we leave them alone, they'll leave us alone.

They will. Bank on it. Especially when the new solar cells that were recently announced are fully deployed.

>History disproves that belief.

Well, you can't equate Nazi Germany with the current situation. This would be an overly tropistic response.

>I am leaning towards Fred Thompson for now. We will see.

America is sick, it needs Dr. Ron Paul.

http://www.mecfilms.com/universe